MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Let's talk a bit more about Michigan, one of the biggest primary elections this year, because, as we said, the outcome of that race in November could help determine the balance of power in the Senate. Republicans currently hold 53 out of 100 seats there. Michigan State University professor of political science Matt Grossmann is with us for this. Good morning.
MATT GROSSMANN: Good morning.
MARTIN: So as we just said, those results are still inconclusive at this hour, but the race remains really close and - I'm guessing - much closer than either El-Sayed or Stevens' camps would have liked. I'm thinking this might be surprising to both parties because huge sums, as we just heard, were spent on Stevens' campaign by the outside groups. But El-Sayed's polls in the last few days showed a fairly comfortable margin for him. So what do you make of the fact that it's as close as it is at this hour?
GROSSMANN: Well, polling in Senate primaries does have a considerable air, and that was true last night, regardless of the final result. Part of that is that enthusiasm on the ground and online might actually be a sign that the polling respondents are not necessarily representative of the broader population.
MARTIN: You know, this primary fight was pretty bare-knuckles on all platforms, you know, in the debate, social media. Is that the norm right now? Was that because it's an open seat, or are there other factors at play here?
GROSSMANN: Well, this was a one-on-one contrast between the left and the center of the party between candidates that were very well differentiated on Israel, Palestine. And so it kind of brought out all of those acrimonious positions. But it is worth noting that Jocelyn Benson cruised to victory in the Democratic primary for governor. She's a more normie Democrat. So a lot of people went in voting for El-Sayed and Benson, you know, without necessarily any complications.
MARTIN: That's interesting. What do you make of that?
GROSSMANN: Well, it just means that the candidates matter. You know, the Democratic leadership tried to recruit Gretchen Whitmer for this Senate seat, and that would have been a far different primary than they got with Haley Stevens.
MARTIN: Do you have a sense of what this may portend - obviously, we don't know who the nominee is going to be yet for the - but what this may portend for the coming general election fight against Republican Mike Rogers, who consolidated early, and the president's behind him?
GROSSMANN: Mike Rogers is happy because the Democrats are divided, and he comes in united. The results also mean that the national Republicans are going to spend a lot of money in Michigan and make this a top-tier race rather than a second-tier race and really view it as a potential pickup opportunity.
MARTIN: Matt, what about that outside spending? As we've heard, the Senate contest saw a lot of outside spending. Stevens received - what? - about $60 million, more than half of that amount from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee. How do people in Michigan feel about this?
GROSSMANN: Well, it certainly was a live issue in the race. It was something that El-Sayed brought up regularly. But it should also be taken as a sign that money in politics matters but is not everything. On the Republican gubernatorial primary, the winner was also outspent substantially by Perry Johnson, a self-funded candidate. So sometimes you can't fully overcome a deficit with voters with - by spending more money.
MARTIN: So let me ask you about a decisive win in Michigan's 7th Congressional District. The nomination went to William Lawrence, a climate activist. He's one of the candidates backed by Senator Bernie Sanders. How do you assess his win?
GROSSMANN: Yeah. This was a very interesting race that was sleepy for a while and then became a big victory for the Bernie side in a true toss-up district. This is Elissa Slotkin's former district. It's also Mike Rogers' former district. So it is expected to be close in general. And what happened here was that the Democrats weren't able to recruit either of the state senators to run for this district. Instead, they recruited two out-of-state - or out-of-district candidates, who fought it out in the sort of moderate establishment lane, really allowing progressive William Lawrence to build a reputation on the ground as the local candidate with a lot of grassroots support, and that carried him through. The other odd dynamic was that Elissa Slotkin endorsed the third-place candidate in the race, kind of failing to make consolidation possible against him.
MARTIN: It sounds fascinating. I guess endorsements don't mean as much as they used to.
GROSSMANN: Well, if you can get everyone behind the mainstream candidate early, like they did with Jocelyn Benson in the governor's race, it matters, but it doesn't - can't overcome a deficit at the end.
MARTIN: That is Michigan State University professor of political science Matt Grossmann. Professor Grossmann, thank you.
GROSSMANN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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