STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Let's pick up on that point and go further on this with Dana Stroul, who's with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and served as deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East during the Biden administration. Welcome to the program.
DANA STROUL: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: We just heard at the end of that report a reference to U.S. allies in the region. Do they suffer? And if so, how, as this conflict goes on?
STROUL: Absolutely. So U.S. allies in the region, particularly Jordan and our Gulf countries who host U.S. military bases, have been attacked by Iran from the beginning of this war. So not only at those military bases, but then Iran expanded its retaliation by targeting civilian energy infrastructure, civilian hotels, desalination plants. And then, as Aya mentioned, we also had some of Iran's proxies, like the ones based in Iraq, targeting Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure, that East-West pipeline.
INSKEEP: So U.S. allies, instead of being more secure because they have a U.S. base, are less secure?
STROUL: They are certainly suffering the consequences of Iran seeking to punish the region for the war that was started by Israel and the United States. However, there is alignment that Iran is really the problem in the region, its nuclear program, its missile and drone program. We've seen the consequences of such a vast arsenal. And its support for terrorists all across the region have made and continue to make the region less safe.
INSKEEP: Oh, there was reporting early in the war that Saudi Arabia was supportive of the United States, even though Saudi Arabia was suffering. It sounds like you buy that line of reasoning by the Saudis.
STROUL: I think for the leadership of Saudi Arabia, what they need is stability in the Middle East in order to deliver economic growth and social reform for their country. And the best way to do that is de-escalation and the absence of war. But through all of these cycles of negotiations with Iran, what's very clear is that the Iranian regime is not prepared to make meaningful concessions that would make the region more stable. And because of that, Saudi Arabia and the other governments across the Middle East still need the military support that the U.S. security umbrella provides.
INSKEEP: OK. You mentioned the possibility of Iranian concessions, or their reluctance to make concessions. We've been following these meetings. Is this a serious negotiation between Iran and the United States?
STROUL: This continues to be testing of the water. I don't see it as serious at all. What the Iranians proposed were terms that were even before the actual MOU that stopped the big part of the war in June. It's just recycled offers, nothing that's real flexibility or meaningful concessions. And frankly, we heard the same thing from the Trump administration. Both sides are willing to continue these talks, but neither side is willing to make - to show flexibility at discussed this on the program.
INSKEEP: We discussed this on the program. We heard Iranian President Pezeshkian last week when in New York, saying, we have no trust in the United States and saying Iran is only negotiating to prevent the U.S. from claiming that they refused to negotiate. And, meanwhile, President Trump said he doesn't expect a deal now, maybe after the midterms.
STROUL: I think that's basically par for the course in a very typical Iranian playbook, which is continue to give the perception of being open to talking but not being willing to show flexibility on the core areas of concern - its nuclear program, its missile program, its support for terrorism and now its attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz. And what this means is that we're going to be stuck in this muddled middle - not peace, not war - which probably does set both sides up for escalation again at some point in the near future.
INSKEEP: Let me test something else that the president said. He said, Iran is, quote, "losing so badly." How would you assess who's winning or losing right now?
STROUL: Well, if the Iranians were losing so badly, you'd probably see them more desperate to get some sort of agreement. What President Trump is likely referring to is the current strategy of this naval blockade against Iran, which means nothing is getting in and out of its ports, and then this new economic pressure campaign, which clearly is putting enormous pressure on the Iranian economy and straining Iran's leaders. But it has not yet generated sufficient pressure for the leadership to truly be willing to enter a meaningful negotiation.
INSKEEP: Yeah. I was thinking about that because I'm thinking about the analogy with Russia. The United States - and, in that case, much of the world - tried to isolate Russia's economy, and there certainly was economic suffering. And a couple of years passed, and they never gave up the war, and the Russian economy has recovered to some extent. Could you envision the same thing happening with Iran?
STROUL: We're seeing, again, with the cancellation of flights coming from and going to Iran, they can't get things into the country through air or via sea. But this is a regime who it's victory if they survive. And what they've done is survive against the most capable, professional military the world has ever seen, which is the United States. And so for them, just minimal reconstitution of their programs and limping along economically is enough to say they stood up to the United States.
INSKEEP: And just briefly, are we, meaning the United States, also limping along here? Because as Aya pointed out, the United States is getting oil through the strait but not keeping down the price of oil. It's well over $100 a barrel.
STROUL: This is really serious. The U.S. military has done incredible work in facilitating up to 15 to 22 million barrels of day out of the Strait of Hormuz. But that doesn't answer the question about refined capacity - diesel, the things that Americans need to keep our economy going and our cars going. It doesn't feel like winning here at the United States, and I think that's why we're seeing increasing criticism of this war here at home.
INSKEEP: Dana Stroul of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Thanks for your insights.
STROUL: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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