A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
We're here because Texas has become a key battleground in the upcoming midterm elections. That's in large part because of Latino voters.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: And I'm a politician that got the most - for a Republican got the most, but almost for anybody got the most Hispanic votes of anybody.
MARTÍNEZ: That's President Trump speaking at a White House event last month. Even though he trailed Kamala Harris with Latinos, the gains he made were key to his 2024 victory. That's why when Republicans in Texas decided to redraw congressional districts to boost their midterm chances, they added Latinos to three of them. They're all in south Texas, so we came here to ask how Latinos could shape the results.
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MARTÍNEZ: And what better place to start than at a high school football game under the lights?
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MARTÍNEZ: It's 85 degrees at kickoff inside San Antonio's Alamo Stadium. And it's a disastrous start for the Burbank Bears.
UNIDENTIFIED ANNOUNCER: Hurricane touchdown.
MARTÍNEZ: The Sam Houston Hurricanes return the opening kickoff all the way to the house for a touchdown. Burbank's student body is nearly 98% Hispanic. On their side of the stadium, we meet Joe Hernandez (ph).
JOE HERNANDEZ: My daughter's on the dance team. She's the second one over on this row. She's a senior.
MARTÍNEZ: Here's his theory on Republican success with Latinos.
HERNANDEZ: I just think there's some sort of blind machismo about what Trump was talking about. And Republicans, as any strategic person would, took that opportunity to try and redraw districts to gain more of the Latino vote for themselves because they maybe saw the tide turning amongst Latinos. It's not like automatically you're Democrat if you're Latino anymore.
MARTÍNEZ: Like many of the people we talk to, Hernandez is feeling the pinch of rising prices. He's talking to us while holding his 18-month-old son in his lap.
HERNANDEZ: Yeah, I'm going to be a father for a while. So these issues do matter to me because it's going to affect them, even if they don't see it right now. You know, it's funny because my daughter jokingly always says, in this economy, in this economy? Yeah, you can't get Starbucks every morning, darling, I'm sorry.
MARTÍNEZ: Hernandez says that while he won't vote blue across the board, he is voting for Democrats in the two big statewide races for governor and a U.S. Senate seat.
UNIDENTIFIED CHEERLEADERS: (Chanting) Hey, girl, do your thing. Do your thing and switch. Hey, girl, do your thing. Do your thing and switch.
MARTÍNEZ: Farther down the stands, we meet Thelma Ariza (ph) and Antonio Lopez (ph). Both Burbank graduates, they first met in college nearly 50 years ago. They've been friends ever since. Ariza is a retired teacher. The state of the economy has forced her to give up a cherished family tradition.
THELMA ARIZA: I didn't go to the coast this year, not only because of the gas, I had to get a hotel or a condo or something with the family. And it was a lot pricier than it was this past year, so I didn't end up going to the coast.
MARTÍNEZ: Was that difficult for you, not to be able to do that?
ARIZA: Yeah, it was because I always enjoy taking it with my boys. And I have two boys. And I always enjoy going, but it was just not possible.
MARTÍNEZ: Lopez just retired after almost 40 years at the IRS. He says things are tight now that he's on a fixed income, and he thinks he knows why.
ANTONIO LOPEZ: Our president. I mean, tariffs, the price of oil, gasoline, the war.
MARTÍNEZ: I mean, how do you think next year will be? I mean, do you see a light at the end of the tunnel?
LOPEZ: I hope so because it needs to get better. I mean, it's impacting way too many people in the lower socioeconomics.
MARTÍNEZ: Lopez tells us that he and Ariza rarely argue, only about football sometimes, but never politics. And on the big statewide races this year, they're in agreement.
LOPEZ: I'm going to vote for Talarico. And for governor, I'm voting for Hinojosa.
MARTÍNEZ: That's James Talarico, the Democratic nominee for Senate taking on Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat running for governor.
UNIDENTIFIED CHEERLEADERS: (Chanting) Go Gina, woo.
MARTÍNEZ: Earlier that day, we caught up with Hinojosa at a campaign stop in downtown San Antonio. We sat down at a local taqueria afterwards.
GINA HINOJOSA: The people of Texas, we know our worth. We know we deserve better than Greg Abbott.
MARTÍNEZ: Abbott is the incumbent Republican seeking a fourth term as governor. We asked him for an interview, too, but his campaign did not get back to us. Hinojosa has her own views of what's happening with Latinos here.
HINOJOSA: The Latino vote, I think, is the swingiest vote. Their allegiance really is to their pocketbook, making sure that they can provide for their families. And so, Latinos are looking for a leader who will deliver for them. Nobody has the luxury of fighting culture wars in 2026.
MARTÍNEZ: I know you declared the culture wars are over, I heard.
HINOJOSA: Well, nobody can win the culture wars. They are unwinnable wars because the culture wars are dependent on our individual life experiences.
MARTÍNEZ: I think there's been a watch on Texas for a long time to see if this reliably red state will go purple or go blue. Is Texas not as red as it used to be?
HINOJOSA: I do think we're entering into a post-partisan reality. And that creates opportunity for me to win. And I think it's because things have gotten so bad, it is so broken that people want a new way forward.
MARTÍNEZ: Jason Villalba agrees. He's a former Republican state representative who's now president of the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation. Villalba thinks that with the bad economy and the Trump administration's aggressive immigration enforcement, relying on Latinos could backfire on the GOP.
JASON VILLALBA: Every Latino in Texas has a story about a grandmother, a friend of a friend, somebody that works with them who's been deported and had no prior criminal record. And these stories are beginning to really circulate among the community in a way that's visceral. And so there's been a strong pushback against this president.
MARTÍNEZ: And Villalba says that force could be enough to push some Texas Republicans out of office.
VILLALBA: Latinos have historically been called the sleeping giant because they have such large numbers but have not come out to vote. Well, those days are changing. They're very, very eager to get to the polls.
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MARTÍNEZ: Back at the game, Burbank got blown out, 58-nothing. Republicans will have to wait until November 3 to see if their play with Latino voters can help them avoid a similar result.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Ow, 58 to nothing, A Martínez.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah, it was bad, it was bad.
INSKEEP: Oh, my goodness. I was interested, though, listening to the Texas gubernatorial candidate who referred to the Latinos' allegiance to their pocketbook. Did you feel like you were among people who were just on edge?
MARTÍNEZ: Oh, yeah, on edge, because maybe they don't think the government is always working for them, but they didn't want the government to be constantly having them worry about where their money is going and then not having enough for themselves.
INSKEEP: OK.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
INSKEEP: Thanks for that reporting. We'll listen for more.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.
(SOUNDBITE OF PACO DE LUCIA'S "ENTRE DOS AGUAS") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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