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It's a rough time to be a beef consumer, with ground beef costing about $6.80 a pound. But beef producers are not faring so well either, in part thanks to White House trade decisions. And that could be a deciding factor in this year's midterms. NPR's Danielle Kurtzleben went to Iowa to see how farmers and candidates are talking about beef.
DANIELLE KURTZLEBEN, BYLINE: Scott Birker wasn't sure his cows would talk to a radio reporter.
SCOTT BIRKER: They're a little grumpy with me right now.
KURTZLEBEN: Why is that?
BIRKER: Because we just got done weaning.
KURTZLEBEN: Oh, I see.
Eventually, they got talking.
(SOUNDBITE OF COWS MOOING)
KURTZLEBEN: Birker knows his herd well. He's been raising cattle outside the eastern Iowa town of Garrison since 2001.
BIRKER: We're currently about 150 head of mama cows. We raise calves, sell feeder calves off, and then we also do a little bit of fattening of cattle.
KURTZLEBEN: In August, Trump announced that his administration would allow imports of up to 300,000 metric tons of beef under lower tariffs. Birker is the northeast regional vice president for the Iowa Cattlemen's Association, and so he knows raising that quota hurt people.
BIRKER: That surprise, with a very volatile market already with a tight supply, hurts us really, really fast and really, really hard.
KURTZLEBEN: Margins are always tight, says Zach Raff, incoming livestock economist at Iowa State University. But drought and consolidation have helped create other challenges.
ZACH RAFF: The beef herd size is at an all-time low, 75 year low. So you couple that with very strong demand, and that's going to make prices what you see at the store right now.
KURTZLEBEN: And Raff says some Trump policies have made things tougher. Last year, amid the trade war, China cut its U.S. beef purchases. In February, President Trump announced the U.S. would import more Argentinian beef. And in August, he signed that executive order on beef imports, adding that he wanted that beef sold at 25% below market prices. That not only helped push cattle prices lower, but it also greatly increased uncertainty.
RAFF: If I'm a beef producer, if I make the decision to keep a cow to replace in the herd to, you know, produce offspring for the next eight to 10 years, I want to know what that's going to be worth in the future, right?
KURTZLEBEN: Importing more beef makes sense to bring down consumer prices, but the amount allowed was around 2% of total U.S. beef consumption. That made a lose-lose situation. The policy was enough to rattle producers, not enough to help consumers much. And that brings us to the midterms. Iowa Republican Representative Ashley Hinson, who's running for the state's open Senate seat, publicly broke with Trump on his beef imports. Here she was on Fox News.
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ASHLEY HINSON: We need to focus on affordability, but I think this isn't the way to do that. I think we need to focus on helping our cattlemen grow their herd.
KURTZLEBEN: Her opponent, Democratic State Legislator Josh Turek, has stressed that Hinson has supported some Trump policies that hurt farmers.
JOSH TUREK: She's been in favor of all this - five times in favor of the tariffs. Farmers rely on markets, on free trade more than any other group.
KURTZLEBEN: All of this could have big consequences. Democrats also have a real possibility of flipping three of Iowa's House seats and winning the governorship. Speaking in Iowa just days after the beef executive order, Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins described what she thought of Trump's decision to import more beef by lifting what are called tariff rate quotas, or TRQs, in this audio from PBS.
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BROOKE ROLLINS: I believe everyone will look back on this time and say, OK, didn't love the three month lift of the TRQ, but we're so grateful to a president that is willing to listen, willing to make big bold decisions and willing to put it all out there for our American producers.
KURTZLEBEN: In a statement, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly said, quote, "President Trump has done more for American agriculture than anyone," adding that he is, quote, "delivering on his promise to consumers by reducing beef prices while allowing our American beef herd to grow." Seth Watkins, who has his own cattle herd in southwestern Iowa, said he's voting blue, adding that he's not just upset with Trump...
SETH WATKINS: As much as what the president does frustrates me, I think I'm more frustrated with Congress, who has the - who should be exercising the checks and balances we learned about in high school civics.
KURTZLEBEN: Is not at all just about Iowa. Several states with tight races this year - Texas, Nebraska, Montana and Kansas - also produce a lot of beef. Back on his farm, Birker knows what he'll do.
BIRKER: I'll vote Republican.
KURTZLEBEN: He stresses that this is purely a personal decision and that the Iowa Cattlemen are a nonpartisan group. As for Trump, Birker approves of how he's doing as president.
BIRKER: I do. I do. I just think it's a long putt. He's a businessman, and I think he - we got to stick it out with him.
KURTZLEBEN: Trump will travel to Sioux City, Iowa, this week as a part of his midterm push.
Danielle Kurtzleben, NPR News.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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