SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
President Trump has made yet another stunning U-turn when it comes to Iran. Just hours before his threatened deadline to resume bombing, he backed down for the second time in two weeks. And instead, Trump announced he is indefinitely extending the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran until negotiations conclude. But there's no clarity on what exactly the next moves are.
Joining us to discuss the latest is NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez, as well as NPR international correspondent in the Gulf, Aya Batrawy. Franco, I want to start with you, a big announcement from the president. What do you take from this decision to extend the deadline?
FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: Yeah.
DETROW: The ceasefire, rather.
ORDOÑEZ: It really was a big announcement, Scott. I mean, just hours of a deadline to resume fighting the president announces this - or the extension. I mean, the president said Pakistan, which is mediating the talks, asked him to hold off on the attacks, but that the U.S. military would continue to stick around and that he was extending the ceasefire until the talks were concluded, quote, "one way or the other."
And this is quite a pivot from just a few hours ago when he warned that he was ready to restart the bombing. And as you noted, it's not the first time that Trump has made a big threat before pulling back, such as he did two weeks ago when he threatened to wipe out the Iranian civilization before announcing the original ceasefire.
DETROW: Aya, I want to ask you about one thing that Trump said. He said the extension was warranted due to a seriously fractured Iranian government. What did he mean by that?
AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: So, you know, these U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran did kill Iran's top leadership, including its supreme leader and its top negotiator. And it's not clear who exactly is calling the shots on whether these talks should happen again or on the Strait of Hormuz right now. But we do know that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is still the most powerful military force in the country, and it has consolidated that power in this war with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
And we have seen more hard-liners emerging in new positions of leadership in Iran. And the Iranian foreign ministry, which is in charge of diplomacy - being somewhat overshadowed by a tougher stance from the Revolutionary Guard. But the regime has spoken in unison on a number of issues, including saying that Trump's demands in these talks are excessive, contradictory and frequently changing.
And as of now, it's overnight here. We have not seen an Iranian response to Trump's unilateral extension of the ceasefire. And until this point, we hadn't even seen an announcement from Iran or a decision to send a delegation to meet again for more direct talks with the U.S.
DETROW: So, Franco, one point in all of this - Vice President JD Vance was supposed to leave for Pakistan for these talks. Then at one point today, the White House announced that he was still in Washington. Does this mean - this latest development mean he's not traveling?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, it certainly means he's not traveling today, but Trump gave no indication of when talks between the two sides would resume. You know, as you noted, this appears to be an indefinite ceasefire. And as Aya said, Trump appears to be willing to wait until the various factions inside the Iranian government are at least more on the same page.
DETROW: Aya, let's talk about another big factor here, the U.S. blockade on Iranian cargo ships. How is that affecting these talks, as well as the prospects of reaching an agreement?
BATRAWY: Yeah, I mean, the situation today is not what it was two weeks ago when Vice President Vance and other U.S. officials met with Iran's delegation for talks that lasted for 21 hours in Pakistan. Now there's a U.S. naval blockade blocking Iranian cargo ships in the Arabian Sea and just outside the Gulf of Oman.
And U.S. Marines have fired on and seized two Iranian cargo ships already, and the seizure of that first Iranian cargo ship, Scott, and its crew by U.S. Marines came just two days before the ceasefire was set to expire. Iran has called it a violation of the ceasefire, and it likely played a part in why they haven't yet agreed to another round of talks.
It's important to note, too, that the last two times they were in talks with the Trump administration, Iran got bombed. And of course, Iran has its own blockade squeezing world markets, and that's the Strait of Hormuz, where hundreds of cargo ships - many of them oil and gas tankers - are stuck. Oil is selling at around $100 a barrel. That's 40% higher than it was before the war. Diesel, also needed for farming and construction, is also way up.
DETROW: So the Strait of Hormuz is one big factor hanging over this war. Franco, the other is Iran's nuclear program. President Trump continues to say blocking Iran from getting a nuclear weapon is a key to any deal. Is that what the future of these negotiations are focused on?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, I do think that the nuclear deal is a big part of the negotiations, but I'll just go back that I think the most current deal hinges on the Strait of Hormuz and especially control of the strait. I mean, the strait just has turned into this massive weapon of leverage that Tehran didn't have before or at least didn't know that it had before. And the U.S. has tried everything it can to try to maneuver around it, including its own blockade when it comes to the strait.
DETROW: So, Aya, there was concern that the war would resume. Now there's an indefinite ceasefire. What is the view from the broader region about all of this, given all the unknowns?
BATRAWY: Well, there is another ceasefire that's still holding, and that's the one in Lebanon between Iran-backed Hezbollah and Israel, though Israeli troops still occupy a large part of southern Lebanon. You know, that ceasefire was a main demand of Iran going into the talks. And in the Gulf where I am, you know, the situation is on edge. I heard a fighter jet overhead here after midnight, so clearly in anticipation of whatever comes next.
And economies have been bruised and battered by Iran's attacks. And in Iran, the internet is still largely inaccessible, though there's been some easing of that to revive the economy there. Our colleague Durrie Bouscaren is at the Turkish border with Iran, and she met a woman at the train station who just arrived in Turkey from Iran. Have a listen.
UNIDENTIFIED PERSON: (Speaking Farsi).
BATRAWY: So she says, neither Israel nor the U.S. want what is best for Iran but that Iranians want to live normally, and like many Iranians she's met, the woman says, people want Iran's regime to disappear, but that won't happen.
DETROW: Franco, real quick, how should we read this latest change or blink or however you want to call it from Trump?
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah, I mean, I think it's just the latest example of how Trump is not a reliable narrator. I mean, it's just very unclear how much is real and how much is a negotiating stance. The threat this morning, for example, certainly appears to be a negotiating tactic.
DETROW: That was NPR's Franco Ordoñez and Aya Batrawy. And a note that this evening, in response to Trump's announcement, an Iranian Parliamentary advisor wrote on X, Trump's ceasefire extension means nothing. The losing side cannot dictate terms. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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