MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Let's talk about where the Trump administration could go from here with John Bolton. He is a longtime advocate of regime change in Iran who served as ambassador to the United Nations under former President George W. Bush. He also served as national security adviser during the first Trump administration. Ambassador Bolton, welcome back. Thanks for joining us once again.
JOHN BOLTON: Well, thanks for having me.
MARTIN: So as we've been reporting, President Trump has extended the ceasefire indefinitely and unilaterally. What's your sense of how that affects the situation on the ground?
BOLTON: Well, I think it's a great plus for Iran. I don't think we should've entered into a ceasefire. They were the ones that were really getting pounded. And every day that goes by, when there's a ceasefire - I'm leaving the Gulf out for a moment. But anyway, any day there's a ceasefire over Iran is a day the regime can regroup and pull itself back together again, plan for the next phase of the war. I would not have given them the leeway. But part of the problem here is I don't think the president really knows what his objective is. And, you know, as the saying goes, if you don't know where you're going, any road will do.
MARTIN: So I think that many people may wonder, you know, more broadly, how come the world's most powerful military, which is the United States, does not seem to have been able to keep Iran - a medium-sized power - from seizing ships and from effectively closing the strait? Why do you think that is?
BOLTON: Well, it - I'm still a little puzzled by we weren't on this potential earlier in the war. It certainly was obvious to anybody going back decades that closing the Strait of Hormuz was an option for the regime in Iran, to try and leverage that ability against outside powers. And while we had plenty of targets inside Iran in the opening days and weeks of the attacks, one wonders why perhaps we didn't give this eventuality more weight in selecting the targets. But, OK, so we are where we are now.
Let's be clear. The Iranian regime has been digging in militarily for 47 years. The economy of Iran before the war started was a wreck. So I analogize Hamas to the regime in Iran. They have neglected their own people by building a fortress under the Gaza Strip, and that's really what Iran has done. They have stockpiles of thousands of drones, more missiles than we estimated. Sure, I mean, if you spend all that money on all that weaponry and all those capabilities, you're harder to defeat than a country that doesn't. But there's no match between Iran and the United States if we were determined to win. And that remains in question.
MARTIN: So President Trump says he has effectively succeeded in regime change. He says the leaders in Iran have been replaced. He says they're more amenable to U.S. demands. Do you agree?
BOLTON: No. We don't know who's in charge inside Iran now. That shows a positive of the attack. The regime is fractured internally. And these are the circumstances where if we had planned for this - underline if we had planned for this - working with the opposition, we would be in better shape now to help the regime further split up and collapse internally. The idea that somehow just because there are different faces that we've eliminated the radical ideology that has motivated the regime since 1979 is simply not true.
MARTIN: So where do you think the Trump administration should go from here, recognizing that they don't seem to be consulting you and others? But just if for some reason they were to ask you your thoughts, what would you say? Where should they go from here?
BOLTON: Well, the first step, not the only step, but the first step is to militarily open the Strait of Hormuz to all traffic other than Iranian traffic. The potential for Iran to close the strait, as I say, has been evident for decades, centuries maybe. But now they've done it. And if you think that simply opening it diplomatically solves the problem, it does not.
It just shows to Iran that they can open and close the strait like turning a light switch on and off. And they will dominate the Gulf Arabs as far as the eye can see if they're allowed to do that. Whereas, if we take control of it militarily - I'm not saying that's easy, but I'm saying it's necessary - then I think we have reestablished deterrence. And the ability of Iran or the willingness of Iran to do that will be diminished because they will see ultimately, they will be pushed back militarily and suffer a lot more than they could possibly gain by temporarily dominating the strait.
MARTIN: Before we let you go, on Thursday, President Trump was asked if he would consider using nuclear weapons against Iran. He said, no, I wouldn't use it - a nuclear weapon should never be allowed to be used by anybody. Should he offer that as a diplomatic opening, say we'll eliminate our nuclear program if you do, too?
BOLTON: I wouldn't offer anything to these people. I mean, I wouldn't give them air to breathe. This regime is dangerous to the world, dangerous to its own people. It has pursued nuclear weapons, it's sponsored terrorism, it's obviously closed the Strait of Hormuz. And you will not have peace and stability in the Middle East as far as the eye can see while this regime remains in power.
MARTIN: That's John Bolton, who served as national security adviser in President Trump's first term. Ambassador, thank you so much.
BOLTON: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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