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Six states hold primaries on Tuesday, testing Trump's influence

A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:

There are primaries in six states today.

LEILA FADEL, HOST:

The results in those elections will give us more understanding of President Trump's continued influence from the Oval Office, even when he's not on the ballot.

MARTÍNEZ: NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro is here to talk us through all of it. So, Domenico, what races in particular are you watching today?

DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Well, I mean, as you said, there's six states that are voting from Pennsylvania to the South - in Kentucky, Alabama and Georgia - to out West in Oregon and Idaho. We're really heading into the heat of primary season here. The race I've got my closest eye on tonight is in Kentucky, a congressional race where Republican Thomas Massie is in a fight for his political life because of his high-profile disagreements with President Trump, especially and including wanting those Epstein files released.

MARTÍNEZ: OK. So where does a president fit in here?

MONTANARO: Yeah, I mean, Trump has been a huge theme here. I mean, Trump has been so upset with Massie that he endorsed a primary opponent, Ed Gallrein, who served in the Navy as a SEAL officer. Trump said all he needed was a, quote, "warm body" in this race, and got one, he said, with a, quote, "big, beautiful brain." Massie has tried to address that and still wrap his arms around Trump, like in this ad.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

THOMAS MASSIE: So there's no sense in trying to avoid it. Let's just talk about the elephant in the room. I agree with President Trump a whole lot more than I disagree with him.

MONTANARO: So he said he was trying to address the elephant in the room. But I thought it was notable that he never actually addresses the elephant in the room...

MARTÍNEZ: Yeah.

MONTANARO: ...And those criticisms of Trump in that ad, just what they agree on, like immigration policy, defending the Second Amendment. But all of that could be a tough sell to MAGA fans. And opponents of Massie have been running tens of millions of dollars in opposition to him, like this one.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

UNIDENTIFIED NARRATOR: Massie's new ad, the elephant is fake, and so is Massie's claim of supporting President Trump.

MONTANARO: And that's referring to the use of AI in Massie's ad. The ad is from the United Democracy Project - or UDP - which is affiliated with AIPAC. That's the pro-Israel lobby. And they see Massie as not being pro-Israel enough. And they've put him in ads next to pictures of Democrats like Minnesota Congresswoman Ilhan Omar and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

MARTÍNEZ: When you mentioned the ads that have been running, you mentioned tens of millions of dollars. That sounds like a lot of money for a primary election.

MONTANARO: Yeah, it really is. I mean, in fact, according to our ad-tracking partner, AdImpact, this race has seen the most money ever spent on TV ads for a House primary, $33 million. So much of it is from groups trying to defeat Massie. So a lot of money being spent on Trump's retribution campaign, and there's hundreds of millions more where that came from. We saw some of it used again successfully over the weekend in Louisiana, when incumbent Republican Senator Bill Cassidy went down in the primary there after Trump backed the challenger. And this is why so few Republicans put their necks out to oppose the president.

MARTÍNEZ: Is that dynamic playing out in other places?

MONTANARO: Yeah, it's a key thing in a lot of primaries, especially in places with very conservative primary electorates. Tonight, we'll also be watching results for Senate primaries in Alabama and Georgia, where Republicans are trying to out-MAGA each other. You know, Georgia is going to be particularly important to watch because this is a really important Senate race, with Democrat Jon Ossoff as the incumbent. And Republicans would love to flip this seat. But the Republican primary electorate in Georgia, which is very conservative, is different than the general election one.

You know, Trump and Trump-liked candidates have shown great strength in primaries, when parties tend to turn out their most loyal supporters. But they have a harder time in general elections. So Republicans have to be careful here not to come across as too extreme if they want to be able to pick up this seat in November. And this is going to be one of the most closely watched Senate races this fall, as is next week's runoff in Texas, when the primary will be decided there, too.

MARTÍNEZ: All right, that's NPR's Domenico Montanaro. Thanks a lot, Domenico.

MONTANARO: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Domenico Montanaro is NPR's senior political editor/correspondent. Based in Washington, D.C., his work appears on air and online delivering analysis of the political climate in Washington and campaigns. He also helps edit political coverage.
A Martínez is one of the hosts of Morning Edition and Up First. He came to NPR in 2021 and is based out of NPR West.