LEILA FADEL, HOST:
The United States and Iran might be close to a preliminary deal that would extend the current ceasefire and gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That's the waterway that plays a critical role in shipping global oil supplies. While the potential agreement does not address Iran's nuclear enrichment, it would serve as a starting point for direct talks between the two sides.
STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
President Trump says this morning that negotiations with Iran are, in his words, proceeding nicely, and that he has asked all countries in the region to normalize ties with Israel as part of this deal. In a moment, we'll discuss the possibilities of this agreement with a former us ambassador to Israel. We begin with what the administration is saying.
FADEL: NPR's senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson is covering this and joins me now. Hi, Mara.
MARA LIASSON, BYLINE: Hi there.
FADEL: So what are U.S. officials saying publicly about this possible deal?
LIASSON: Well, it's not actually a deal yet. But Trump posted that he'd spent Saturday talking with leaders from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Jordan, Bahrain and Pakistan about, quote, "a memorandum of understanding" and that one aspect of these negotiations, according to Trump, would be to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's foreign ministry says the memorandum of understanding is aimed at ending the war but that Iran is rejecting any discussions about its nuclear program, so no change there. Trump later posted something that tamped down expectations. He said he told U.S. negotiators not to rush into a deal. He also reiterated that Iran cannot develop a bomb. But he also posted, quote, "nobody has seen it or knows what it is. It isn't even fully negotiated."
FADEL: OK. So it's not even clear that this is anything really yet. What has the reaction been politically?
LIASSON: There are Republicans who supported the strike on Iran who have been very skeptical about this deal memorandum. Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina posted on X, if a deal is struck to end the Iranian conflict because it's believed that the Strait of Hormuz cannot be protected from Iranian terrorism, then Iran will be perceived as being a dominant force. He later urged Trump to stick to his guns and get a good deal. Senator Roger Wicker of Mississippi, who chairs the Senate Armed Services Committee, said on X that the deal was a disaster. And in a previous post, he said Trump is being ill-advised to pursue a deal that would not be worth the paper it's written on. So I think as we get more details about this, we might get more reaction like that.
FADEL: Yeah. So it's been a little over 12 weeks since the U.S. and Israel started this war. Most Americans don't like it. Gas prices have spiked, and inflation is on the rise. Republicans are increasingly nervous about the midterms, given all of this economic news. Would a deal, Mara, with Iran now help them in November?
LIASSON: It certainly would help them more than not having a deal, especially if the Strait of Hormuz opens and gas prices come down before November. That would be helpful for Republican incumbents. We are seeing a deeply unhappy electorate. Democrats have an advantage when people are asked that generic ballot question, who would you prefer to run Congress - Democrats or Republicans? And if it was a decade ago, we'd be saying, whoa. It looks like there's a blue wave forming.
But the structural advantages that Republicans have make them more powerful in the midterms. They have lots more money. There's been a new round of court-sanctioned partisan redistricting, and even before that mid-cycle redistricting, Republicans had a map with fewer competitive seats than in the past. We also know from polling that even though voters are negative about Trump and the war and the ballroom and the economy, they're also reluctant to vote for Democrats because the Democratic brand is so unpopular.
So that means in the end, Democrats in competitive districts have to find ways to separate themselves from their party. Republicans in these districts have to find a way to separate themselves from Trump. And we know that some Republicans in Congress are balking for the first time at voting for some of Trump's unpopular policies.
FADEL: That's NPR's senior national political correspondent Mara Liasson. Thank you, Mara.
LIASSON: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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