LEILA FADEL, HOST:
OK. So let's get some analysis of these primary results with Matthew Klein. He follows U.S. House and governors' races for the Cook Political Report. Good morning, Matthew.
MATTHEW KLEIN: Good morning.
FADEL: So we just heard from our correspondent there, kind of, the wins and the most closely watched races. What else stood out to you from these six statewide primaries?
KLEIN: Well, I think the biggest result of the night was probably the shocking defeat of Randy Feenstra in the gubernatorial contest in Iowa. And I don't say shocking because we didn't necessarily see it as a possibility. I think we did. There was, you know, for a while, we had - it had become clear that Feenstra had a pretty serious base problem heading into this primary. But because Donald Trump chose to back him at the last minute...
FADEL: Right.
KLEIN: ...And Trump rarely chooses to get behind candidates who are unsuccessful, and Feenstra ultimately fell to Zach Lahn by less than a point in that primary. And he had begun it as a very clear favorite. And that itself is surprising.
FADEL: I mean, what was it in that race? - I mean, because the president has endorsed a lot of candidates who ended up beating incumbents in these primaries. What were the main factors that led to the loss here?
KLEIN: I think Feenstra ran a very over-confident campaign. He began as the front runner. He was by far the most well-known commodity in the field when the contest began. And there was sort of an air of inevitability about the way that he conducted his race, where he didn't participate in a lot of the events on the ground, debates or candidate forums. And, of course, Iowa is a state where voters have a very high expectation that their candidates are going to come and hear from them directly.
And I think there was also just a sort of sense among the party's grassroots that Feenstra was too tied in with the Washington establishment. Trump never - he did endorse, but it came very late in this race on May 29, three days before voters went to the polls. And so it's not clear that it really had much time to sink in. It's not clear how many people knew about that endorsement...
FADEL: Yeah.
KLEIN: ...In the home stretch. So ultimately, I think Feenstra was just sort of caught off guard by a more populist challenge from a candidate who was very good on the stump.
FADEL: We've seen voters really drawn to these populist anti-establishment candidates generally. Did that show up in the results in these primaries?
KLEIN: I think so. I mean, certainly, that result in Iowa. Democrats are running in the Senate race sort of an interesting campaign, as well, and we moved that race rating last night to reflect the fact that that has become increasingly competitive. Josh Turek, who is a state representative from Council Bluffs area, he is a candidate with an intriguing background, and he's hoping to put some of the party's, you know, discontent - in the overall elector, it's discontent with the state of the economy - in play in that Senate race. We moved it to lean Republican, reflecting, you know, we still view Ashley Hinson...
FADEL: Interesting.
KLEIN: ...The Republican nominee as the favorite in that contest. But this is, you know, a race that Democrats feel increasingly optimistic about. The gubernatorial contest we have known for a long time was going to be competitive. They think - Democrats think that could help them as they head into a unified front heading into this general election. And ultimately, I think the state of tariffs in Iowa has put Democrats in a position to be, you know, more competitive than normal.
FADEL: In New Jersey's 7th Congressional District, Democrat Rebecca Bennett will face off against Republican representative Thomas Kean Jr., who hasn't been seen in Congress since March. How is that contest shaping up?
KLEIN: Well, it's a very awkward contest right now because we don't know where Tom Kean is...
FADEL: Yeah.
KLEIN: ...And we don't have a lot of answers about his situation. I think every day that goes by where we don't have answers and where he's not out there voting and doing his job and appealing to voters on the campaign trail is another day where we have to assume that's probably going to take something of a toll on him in the general election. Now, Rebecca Bennett is a very strong candidate very much in the mold of the now-governor of New Jersey, Mikie Sherrill, with military experience.
And I think, you know, this is going to be a very competitive race, no matter what. But a lot is going to hinge on what ultimately happens with Tom Kean Jr. Just how long does it take before we get an answer from him on where he has been? And do voters buy that that was a reasonable enough excuse for not showing up to work for more than two months?
FADEL: So Democrats really are hoping to take the majority in Congress in the midterms. Looking at the races, the primary races that you follow, California, obviously, still finalizing its count, what are the party's chances?
KLEIN: You know, I think the party still has a pretty good shot, even with all the redistricting war that has taken place this cycle. We're still waiting to see what happens in California's 22nd district. That's where there's been a pretty contentious primary. Democrats would prefer Jasmeet Bains, a more moderate candidate, to emerge on top. But it does look like in many of these races in Iowa, in particular, they will have a very good chance at flipping some of the seats that they need.
They only need, of course, three seats to get to the majority. I think that's still very doable in this environment.
FADEL: Matthew Klein is an analyst with the Cook Political Report. Thank you.
KLEIN: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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