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Israel and Lebanon agree to a ceasefire. Could it affect U.S.-Iran negotiations?

STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:

Now let's get one view from Israel from Danny Citrinowicz. He served as head of the Iran branch of Israel's military intelligence and is now a senior researcher at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Welcome to the program.

DANNY CITRINOWICZ: Thank you very much for inviting me.

INSKEEP: Stating the obvious, the U.S. and Israel started the war together. Now that President Trump wants to end it, are U.S. and Israeli interests exactly the same?

CITRINOWICZ: Oh, definitely not. I think that President Trump has an interest to reach an agreement with Iran, and Israel has an interest not to reach an agreement with Iran because for Israel, any agreement with Iran is a bad agreement because it strengthen the same regime that Israel seek to topple. The problem is that President Trump see Israel activity in Lebanon as a spoiler that can prevent him from reaching that agreement. And this is why we saw this heated debate in the discussion between them.

INSKEEP: I want to underline a thing that you said - when you said that Israel sees any agreement as a bad agreement. The Israeli point of view, I suppose, is this must be a forever war with Iran until the government in Iran fundamentally changes. Is that it?

CITRINOWICZ: Exactly. I think that for Israel, it's not only about nuclear or missile for - I think from - especially when Netanyahu came to the office and became the prime minister of Israel, he seek to topple this regime. This is why he was very against JCPOA, not because it restrained the Iranian nuclear program - because it strengthened the regime that he want to topple. So I think in that regard, he's against any agreement. The problem that Netanyahu has - that he cannot bypass Trump. So if President Trump will decide to reach an agreement, Netanyahu's ability to change this reality is very limited.

INSKEEP: Well, let's be real about this. Of course, if this is the way that Netanyahu sees his country's interests, he's going to pursue them. There was a ceasefire in Lebanon, and it did not hold at all, partly because the Israelis expanded their attacks and made plans to expand them further. Now there is a second ceasefire in Lebanon. Can we expect Israel, in fact, to push to end that as quickly as possible because they just don't believe in it?

CITRINOWICZ: Well, I truly hope that we'll change the policy in Israel regarding Lebanon because we have to remember one thing. We cannot dismantle Hezbollah militarily. I think that the best way is to work with the Lebanese government, as the administration in Washington wants, to strengthen them because we have the same goal of weakening Hezbollah. But we have to assume that we cannot dismantle Hezbollah - not today, not in foreseeable future - using only force. So I think in that regard, we have to change the policy. We have to work. We have to understand that the policy is equally important as using kinetics. And I think if we'll change this notion and working with the people in Lebanon, with President Aoun, with Prime Minister Salam, I think that will be important for the Israeli security, but also for the Lebanese one.

INSKEEP: Ah, so Israelis do not believe in peace with Iran really ever, but you are saying that you believe there is room for some diplomacy in Lebanon specifically.

CITRINOWICZ: Definitely. Israel need to capitalize on that. Now, we have - one of the major shift that we had in Lebanon last year was a government that really want to undermine Hezbollah activity and wants to go to work with Israel. So I think we have to capitalize on that. Every kinetic that we are using to weaken Hezbollah is also weakening the same position in the Lebanese government. So we have to find the sweet spot when we are maybe using kinetics to undermine Hezbollah activity, but the same working with the Lebanese government to strengthen it, knowing and understanding that would be the best route forward in order to strengthen Lebanon, to weaken Hezbollah and to strengthen Israel security.

INSKEEP: Here in the United States, of course, we've heard about political pressure on President Trump. His approval rating is down. People don't like high gas prices, which are related to the war. Midterm elections are coming up, and maybe that's part of the reason that he would feel pressure to end the war as quickly as possible. Does Prime Minister Netanyahu face his own political pressures at home?

CITRINOWICZ: Well, less in terms of Iran. I think that his pressure is actually making sure that there won't be any agreement between the U.S. and Iran. Of course, he cannot force it, but I'm sure that he working behind the scene to pressure on President Trump not to reach an agreement. But it's less than President Trump. At the end of the day, this war is highly dominated by Trump himself. So I think we have to remember - this is one thing that we really have to remember. At the end of the day, what President Trump will decide, Prime Minister will - Netanyahu will have to implement.

INSKEEP: Danny Citrinowicz with a view from Israel. He's at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. Thanks for your insights.

CITRINOWICZ: Thank you very much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Steve Inskeep is a host of NPR's Morning Edition, as well as NPR's morning news podcast Up First.