MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
Randa Slim is with us now to give us her take on how the exchange of fire between Israel and Iran could impact future peace talks between Washington and Tehran. She leads the Middle East program at the Stimson Center, which is a nonpartisan U.S. think tank. Randa Slim, thank you so much for joining us once again.
RANDA SLIM: Good morning. Good to be with you.
MARTIN: So these strikes between Israel and Iran are the first they've exchanged since the ceasefire went into effect since April. You know, this isn't the first time that Israel has attacked targets in Lebanon and near Beirut in response to Hezbollah attacks. Why do you think Tehran decided to retaliate this time?
SLIM: I think there is a wider context, is that there are now ongoing negotiation between Iran and Israel over a memorandum of understanding that will allow, eventually, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz and that will lead toward the path of negotiation on Iran nuclear file. And this negotiation are stalled. And so part of this - the timing of the attack by Iran is partly due to putting pressure on the United States, especially the U.S. president, to move forward on the negotiation with the - about the MoU. But the second factor is that Iran is trying to keep promises it made to its proxy ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
When they joined the war on March 2, in support of Iran and in retaliation for the killing of the late supreme leader, the - Hezbollah was promised support by Iran. And until now, this support has not materialized, and there was already some dismay, discontent within Hezbollah and within the supports of Hezbollah that Iran is not keeping up its promise. And, in fact, right after the attack by Iran in which said - in which they said they are retaliating against the attack by Israel on southern suburbs, you see a senior Iranian official post, promise kept.
MARTIN: So do you think that this exchange of fire complicates plans for a final peace deal at this point? I mean, taking your point that you think in the intention here is to actually pressure toward movement here, does this complicate the plans here? Does it seem likely that all-out war will resume?
SLIM: I mean, it is - it does complicate. Iran from the beginning, you know, during - in the prelude to the negotiation for the ceasefire in April, they were insisted and the Pakistani mediator supported them that a ceasefire should cover all fronts. And meaning, you know, what's happening in the Gulf region between U.S., Israel, on one hand, and Iran and also the Hezbollah-Israel from.
The American administration has been pushing, saying, no, they are not. They are not related. Israel is not party to the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, and what's happening in Lebanon should not be included as part of the negotiation. And that's why they have been pushing for this separate direct negotiation between Israel and Lebanon, which concluded a few days ago toward - to achieve a ceasefire and to achieve some kind of nonaggression pact in the long term. And Iran is saying, no, no, the ceasefire is included - includes Lebanon, includes, you know, Hezbollah. And what they are trying to do now is to reinforce these terms of engagement, which they thought were part of the original ceasefire deal they struck with the U.S. on April 6.
MARTIN: What do you think? What do you think? Do you think a peace deal with Iran can be negotiated without addressing the Israeli Hezbollah conflict? Can you actually unwind those two?
SLIM: I don't think so. I think now with this attack, now they are linked, and it's going to be hard to separate them, despite - again, despite efforts both by States and by the Israelis, but also by the Lebanese government. Remember, I mean, Hezbollah entered this war in support of Iran without any kind of coordination with the Lebanese government. And the Lebanese president recently made a CNN interview in which he said, you know, we are responsible for this - we are responsible for negotiating the end to this war between Lebanon and Israel, and that Iran should not be involved in this. And so - but this latest attack, I think, makes it increasingly difficult to delink them going forward.
MARTIN: And before we let you go, only about 30 seconds here, and I realize that's not enough time. But how much of a gap do you think there is between President Trump and the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu?
SLIM: You know, it's always hard to tell. You know, I mean, I don't know if it is a good-cop, bad-cop technique, but I think, increasingly, as the war protract, Mr. Trump is getting bored with this war. He wants to end it, and he sees his objectives to end the war are starting to diverge with Mr. Netanyahu's objective of keeping the war on and keeping Israel on a war path. And I think this is where the space or where the gap is going to start now affecting how we engage with this war.
MARTIN: That's Randa Slim. She's the Middle East program lead at the Stimson Center. Miss Slim, thank you so much for joining us once again.
SLIM: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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