A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Let's get another perspective on the president's big day in foreign policy with Evelyn Farkas. She's a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense. She's now the executive director of McCain Institute. The nonprofit advocates for democracy and human rights worldwide. Evelyn, so let's start with Trump and Zelenskyy because the last couple of times that Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been to the White House has kind of been like must-see TV.
So February 2025, that was the you-don't-have-the-cards conversation. And then in August, he wore a dark suit, and it seemed like things were going better. And then wrapping it up with NATO in Turkey just a while back. I mean, are they buds now? Are Trump and Zelenskyy pals?
EVELYN FARKAS: Well, A, I would say, they're not buds.
MARTÍNEZ: (Laughter).
FARKAS: But President Trump, as you know, likes to back the winner, and President Zelenskyy clearly has the cards, if you will. He has the upper hand now. Russia is back on its heels militarily and economically, and I can go into all the details on that. But right now, Zelenskyy looks like he's going to be the winner.
And there are a bunch of other things going on behind the scenes, you know, with right-wing influencer Laura Loomer headed to Ukraine as part of her fight with other right-wing influencers. And she's also trying to advocate for Ukraine. So these things do impact President Trump's perspective. So he will probably go into this meeting with a friendlier attitude than he did certainly in that first meeting.
MARTÍNEZ: If Trump believes that Zelenskyy is winning the war with Russia, do you think that he will still come at him with a you-still-need-me kind of attitude?
FARKAS: Well, yes, because the reality is that Ukraine still does need the United States. Ukraine relies on our intelligence capabilities to help them with their targeting. And, of course, that deal to provide the technology for Ukraine to create - to build Patriot missile interceptors is actually important. And it's not final, so there's still pressure that needs to be, I think, exerted or deals that need to be made with the manufacturers. Obviously, it's their intellectual property. So that deal is not final. And, of course, you know, President Zelenskyy would like ongoing military support, whether it's directly from the United States or through Europe. Either way, he does need us for that as well.
MARTÍNEZ: So one other wrinkle because Zelenskyy says Russia is sharing intelligence about U.S. military facilities with Iran. So what do you make of that, of Zelenskyy tying Russia to the U.S. war with Iran?
FARKAS: Well, I think it's what Franco said. Essentially, Zelenskyy is trying to demonstrate, we're on the same side, to the president of the United States. And it's true. It's very obvious right now because we have this war in Iran, how closely Iran, North Korea, Russia and China, and really, in particular, of course, Iran and Russia have been working together. This is becoming more public, more obvious. It was a reality before, but President Trump and others could sort ignore it or it wasn't brought to their attention.
Now, the fact of the matter is that this cooperation, Russia's intelligence sharing with Iran, is allowing Iran to target U.S. military personnel. So that's personal, if you will, for the United States and for the U.S. president. So that is what has changed here. But otherwise, you know, we should all understand that those countries, you know, again, Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, are aligned against the United States and our allies and partners, to include those in the Middle East that President Trump also very much values - Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So from one relation that might be thawed to one that might be frosty. That's with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Frank Ordoñez reported on the tensions between the two, and the U.S. has historically been Israel's very, very staunch ally. Where do you see that relationship headed next, especially with Israeli legislative elections set to take place very soon in October?
FARKAS: Right. So this visit to the U.S. is - you know, if Zelenskyy is coming and the opportunities are high and the optics will probably be good - for Netanyahu, this meeting is risky because he wants the U.S. to continue the war in Iran. For Netanyahu, No. 1, he doesn't believe that Israel's objectives are going to be achieved if we go to a negotiation too early because Israel is less concerned about opening the Strait of Hormuz, which is the immediate, you know, objective for the United States.
Israel wants to make sure that the Iranian regime stays weak and that they don't ever have a nuclear weapons program. And those objectives are harder to obtain if we get Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz 'cause then you're starting to deal with the Iranians, and maybe, you know, Trump and the United States will let up a little bit. That's the fear in Israel.
The other thing is, as you mentioned, the elections in Israel. President Netanyahu needs to show that President Trump is on his side because that's always worked to his advantage in the context - in the domestic Israeli context. If the United States is not close to the candidate, if you will, the sitting prime minister, that's definitely a negative for him.
So there's a lot of risk here because President Trump is not inclined to continue the war, although he may say some words to help Netanyahu in the White House today, but I am doubtful that President Trump is going to want to turn on the volume on the military side. He's really ready to ratchet it down and come up with a deal.
MARTÍNEZ: You know, President Trump has said a few times that the midterm elections aren't going to influence his decisions on a lot of things, especially with Iran. But I'm wondering with Netanyahu, do you think that considering he's got elections to worry about, and he also needs support from people in Congress who have elections coming up, how much do you think Benjamin Netanyahu will have the midterms in mind?
FARKAS: He will have the midterms in mind, but he's really focused on his own elections.
MARTÍNEZ: OK.
FARKAS: Yes, he does risk, you know, on the other - the flip side, as you say, is that if the war doesn't go well and if Republicans lose, he's going to lose some supporters and he's going to face a situation where the Democrats who are divided and very - and there's a loud faction that's pushing back against providing, you know, unconditional support to Israel. That faction will get an upper hand if elections don't go in a positive fashion for the Republicans and President Trump.
So Netanyahu does know that, but I don't think he cares about that as much as he cares about his own elections because that's also what keeps him out of jail because he's also been brought in front of the Israeli courts. He's been basically accused of corruption. And if he is not in office, he will have to potentially serve time. So there's a lot at stake for Benjamin Netanyahu today.
MARTÍNEZ: One more thing quickly. How might today's meeting shape what comes next in both areas?
FARKAS: Well, I think the important thing here, A, and this is what I really think we should finish with, is what's the priority? If we can support Ukraine to weaken Russia and essentially defeat Russia either through sanctions or on the battlefield, or ideally a combination of both, then Russia will be weaker. Russia will not be able to support Ukraine as wholeheartedly as it has. And that will help us in Iran. It will help us deter...
MARTÍNEZ: OK.
FARKAS: ...China. It will be an overall bonus to address Russia first. Iran is frankly secondary.
MARTÍNEZ: Evelyn Farkas is former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense who now serves as the executive director of the McCain Institute. Evelyn, thank you very much.
FARKAS: Thank you, A. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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