SACHA PFEIFFER, HOST:
The war with Iran is in its sixth month, and oil is still struggling to move through the Strait of Hormuz.
LEILA FADEL, HOST:
President Trump's tried bombing Iran into submission. Now he's pivoting to economic warfare. In a lengthy post, he announced, in all caps, quote, "the most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country," and he called on allies to stand with the U.S. to unleash economic D-Day, as he called it, on Iran.
PFEIFFER: With us to talk about this is NPR international correspondent Aya Batrawy. Good morning, Aya.
AYA BATRAWY, BYLINE: Good morning.
PFEIFFER: So this crushing economic operation that Trump posted about, do we know what this would look like?
BATRAWY: I mean, more of the same sanctions, the existing blockade and even more pressure now. He's calling on allies around the world, countries around to join him in this isolation of Iran. And we've seen maximum economic pressure before by President Trump. You'll recall this was his policy the first time he was in office. But this is a step beyond because now there is that naval blockade in place, and it is blocking Iran from being able to export its oil.
And this pivot from bombings to blockade comes as AAA says gas prices in the U.S. are up 30% on average from a year ago. So in many states, people are paying a dollar or more per gallon than they were. Diesel for trucks and jet fuel for flying are even higher. Now, that is because of Iran's chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz since the beginning of this war. Windward maritime intelligence tracking says 5 million barrels of oil a day did exit the strait on average per day in July, but that is a fraction of the 20 million barrels that were going through before the war.
PFEIFFER: All that oil that had been pouring through was coming from Gulf Arab allies who depended on it for revenue, for their economies, yet they are now stuck with this stalemate and its consequences. So what's the regional view on this?
BATRAWY: Right. So the Iranian and Gulf oil is not going through that strait freely right now. Well, Trump's approach with Iran has swung wildly in this war. We've heard him threatening to wipe out an entire civilization and then talking up a deal with Iran. But now there is no deal, and Trump says there are no talks with the Iranians. And there are differences of opinion among Gulf Arab allies about all of this.
Oman, for example, which borders the Strait of Hormuz and is holding talks with Iran about its future management. Trump has threatened to bomb that country, Oman, because of those talks, which include possible tolls, that is despite Oman's history as a mediator between Washington and Tehran. Meanwhile, you have the United Arab Emirates, which this week took a step that aligns with Trump.
The UAE halted all trade, commerce and financial transactions with Iran after it says two Iranian missiles were fired toward it. It fell in open waters, but Iran denies that attack. However, I spoke with Mohammed Baharoon. He runs the Dubai Public Policy Research Center in the UAE, and he backs Trump's current approach.
MOHAMMED BAHAROON: Everyone have realized the limitation of military power. And I think now what the U.S. is trying to do is use the same weapon Iran is using against the world which is economic sanctions.
BATRAWY: And he says that while the U.S.-Israeli war launched on Iran triggered all of this, Iran's attacks now on oil and the global economy has to be stopped.
BAHAROON: Attacking the world economy is not justifiable. Attacking other countries because you've been attacked by one country is not justifiable.
BATRAWY: And remember, the UAE has dealt with the brunt of Iranian missile and drones throughout the war.
PFEIFFER: Briefly, you said the UAE has halted all trade, commerce and financial transactions with Iran. Any sense if that will have real consequences for Iran?
BATRAWY: So the UAE was the biggest importer of Iranian goods worldwide in 2024. That's according to data from the World Trade Organization. And it is also a place where, over the years, the U.S. Treasury has sanctioned Iranian shell companies that are moving illicit money and trade through the UAE. But it is also a place that connects Iranians to the rest of the world.
Dubai airport is a major transit hub that still has flights to and from Tehran. So the UAE is taking a step toward isolating Iran right now, but it has not yet cut off those flights or its ties altogether. So that leaves it room to maneuver with its powerful neighbor, and that is the bind that these Gulf Arab allies are in. They have to deal with Iran even when Trump doesn't.
PFEIFFER: That is NPR's Aya Batrawy. Thank you.
BATRAWY: Thanks. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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