LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Karim Sadjadpour has studied Iran for years and is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He joins us this morning to help us understand what all this could mean. Good morning, and thank you for being back on the show.
KARIM SADJADPOUR: Great to be with you, Leila.
FADEL: So as we just heard, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is set to announce today what he called, in the Financial Times, the single greatest financial offensive ever marshaled against an adversary. But economic sanctions are already so high on Iran. What can the U.S. do that it's not already doing?
SADJADPOUR: Well, what Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary, has laid out, Leila, is essentially, in his own words, the most punishing sanctions ever to be inflicted on a nation and to essentially force countries around the world to make a simple choice. And that is, do they want to do business with Iran, or do they want to do business with America? Because America won't allow both. The big question here, Leila, is for China, because around 90% of Iran's oil exports are bound for China. China is by far Iran's most economic partner, and the question is whether the United States will pick a major fight with China over these Iran sanctions.
FADEL: Could this backfire? I mean, you're seeing Iran's national security adviser threaten U.S. allies who join the economic restrictions that this would be committing an act of war. Then you're seeing Trump on social media last week threaten tremendous economic consequences if any country provides what he called a lifeline to Iran. So how will world leaders regard kind of a double threat here?
SADJADPOUR: So on one hand, Leila, from 1979 - from the 1979 Iranian Revolution to the present, this is a regime which really has only compromised on two major occasions, and that is when it's been faced with enormous, almost existential economic pressure, coupled with a clear diplomatic exit. But we're now in unprecedented times. We're basically in a time of war when Iran has been launching thousands of attacks on its Gulf neighbors. And so...
FADEL: Right.
SADJADPOUR: The question is, how are those countries - how is Iran going to respond when it's faced with this new economic D-Day? Is it simply going to sit on its hands or launch massive strikes on its neighbors? The fear is the latter, that they are going to punch back hard. And then the question is, what does the United States do in that context?
FADEL: Well, in that vein, OK - so the U.S. levies even tougher economic sanctions, and then there's going to be an Iranian reaction, or Iranian government reaction. But then to what end? From what you can tell, does the U.S. have a clear endgame in Iran after it does this?
SADJADPOUR: That is a critical question, Leila, because, as I said, from the revolution to the present, the regime has compromised on a couple of occasions when faced with pressure, but it's also provided kind of a clear, concrete diplomatic exit. In this context, what we've seen and read from Secretary Bessent is essentially a U.S. pressure campaign to potentially implode the Iranian regime. And this is a regime which has 100% resolve because it knows that if it loses power, that could be the end of their lives. And so for that reason, it's a regime which is totally dug in and willing to subject its population to enormous hardship rather than to capitulate.
FADEL: I mean, then what does this mean for Iranians? Because not only did they suffer the backlash against protests where thousands of people were killed before this war and then suffered U.S. bombing, a more extreme regime as a result, a more paranoid regime and backlash, and now will go through even more economic pressure. What does this mean for Iranian people?
SADJADPOUR: Well, 2026 has been a terrible year for the Iranian people, Leila. As your reporter alluded to, in January, there was mass uprisings in which the regime killed potentially tens of thousands of its citizens. The last six, seven months of war have brought enormous hardship, and they're squeezed between a brutal regime and a war which has made that brutal regime even more violent towards them, and it's only increased their economic hardship. And there's not really any precedent, certainly in Iran, of a popular uprising, you know, leading to - I'm sorry - economic pressure leading to popular uprising, which changes the nature of the regime.
FADEL: Is there some threshold of economic pain that, if crossed, will force Iran to negotiate, even if there isn't a diplomatic option? As you've pointed out, that's only been the times they've compromised.
SADJADPOUR: I think the short answer to that is yes, that ultimately this regime wants to survive, and when it fears its existence is at stake, it's prepared to compromise. The big question is, there seems to be a big gap between the Revolutionary Guard generals running the country and the economic -the Iranian civilians who understand the regime's hardship.
FADEL: Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thanks, as always.
SADJADPOUR: Thank you, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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