MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
For more, we're joined by Aaron David Miller. He is a former State Department Middle East negotiator. He's been an adviser to both Republican and Democratic secretaries of state. Good morning. Thank you so much for joining us once again.
AARON DAVID MILLER: Thanks for having me.
MARTIN: So the U.N. Security Council condemned Israel's attack on Qatar in a presidential statement that was backed by all 15 Security Council members, including the U.S. How notable is it that the U.S. joined, noting that, you know, it's not a resolution, but it is a presidential statement, but the U.S. did join it. Important?
MILLER: Yeah. I mean, it's significant but not determinative. You know, as you pointed out, it's a statement, a consensus statement, on a presidential U.N. Security Council statement. It's not legally binding. I mean, it shows, at least rhetorically, on some level, that the Trump administration is not adverse to joining other members of the international community in dealing with the situation in Gaza and the future prospects for regional peace. It's not a resolution. The U.S. has not condemned - voted for a resolution condemning Israel since March of 1980, a long time coming. And I doubt, frankly, given the Trump administration's views, negative views, on the U.N., whether it's inclined to move any way, shape or form toward that goal.
MARTIN: So Qatar's prime minister has said that there has to be a, quote-unquote, "collective response" to Israel's attack on Doha. But what would that look like? What are some of the possibilities?
MILLER: You know, you can look at the last two years, and you can ask yourself the key question. I ask myself all the time. Why in response to the exponential rise of Palestinian deaths, primarily civilian deaths, the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, which is unprecedented and unparalleled, even by Gazan standards, that the Arab world, Israel's treaty partners, Israel, Jordan, Israel's Abraham Accord partners, the Bahrainis and the Emiratis that have formal diplomatic relations with Israel - why have they chosen now to impose a single cost or consequence on Israel or the United States?
So my expectations for what will come out of Doha are pretty low. I mean, the Arabs hold $4 trillion in assets, not just in the United States and Europe, as well. They're clearly not going to do anything on the military side. Economic boycott, embargo oil? No, that's not going to happen. And, you know, the U.S., even as the summer takes place, has its major base in the Middle East, Al Udeid, in Qatar. And, of course, we know the Qataris have granted the president of the United States a very expensive aircraft, which I suspect after being refitted, he'll want to use. So I expect largely rhetoric. It's possible they could threaten to suspend relations with Israel, so the ones that haven't. But again, I think they live really in dread of Donald Trump. And I'm not sure we're talking about a major response here.
MARTIN: Interesting. Well, you know, Israel's prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, is always very solicitous of President Trump when they're together. He constantly praises him, and he thanks him. But is President Trump actually having any influence on Netanyahu in getting Israel to end this war?
MILLER: I mean, they're only two sources of influence, right? I mean, the prime minister's overriding goal - staying in power, to some degree, extending the war - serves that interest. He's got to keep his right-wing coalition together, particularly the two extremist ministers who are now talking about annexation. And apparently, Secretary Rubio and the prime minister are going to talk about annexation, partial annexation of the West Bank. The other source of influence, of course, is Donald Trump. And while he has done - I work for Democrats and Republicans, voted for them, too. While President Trump has done things that no other American president has done in and around Israel - he opened a dialogue with Hamas in March without Israel's approval, cut a deal with the Houthis about which the Israelis learned after the fact, started negotiations with Iran and lifted sanctions on the Ahmed Sharaa government in Syria, over and above the objections of Benjamin Netanyahu.
But Trump's asking himself the question, OK? I'm going to pressure Israel, right? I'm going to get him an end to war. What exactly do I have to do to get Netanyahu's attention? I don't see Trump doing the three things that are available to him - restrict inter-condition U.S. military assistance, going to war with Israel in international fora and, of course, recognizing unilaterally a Palestinian state. I think in Netanyahu's current state of mind, first of all, the president's not going to do any of those things. The real question is, is he prepared to basically say to Netanyahu, look, this has to end, and our relationship, my personal relationship with you and the U.S.-Israeli relationship is turning on a different outcome. And we're going to work together to make that happen. End of war, regional peace. Let's do it. And he should talk to the Israeli public.
MARTIN: But I don't think - what I think I hear you saying is he's not going to do that.
MILLER: I don't think he will.
MARTIN: Aaron David Miller is a former State Department Middle East analyst, negotiator and author. He's currently a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Thank you so much for joining us.
MILLER: Thanks so much for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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