A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
For more on what governance and reconstruction in Gaza might look like, we've got Ghaith al-Omari. He's a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He was also a former adviser to the Palestinian negotiating team during the 1999 to 2001 peace talks that led to the Oslo Accord. He also served as an adviser for the office of the president in the Palestinian Authority and as director for international relations in the Palestinian Authority. So, Ghaith, before we get to anything else when it comes to Gaza - because a lot of this, I'm sure, is way, way down the road - this ceasefire deal, how optimistic are you that it'll hold?
GHAITH AL-OMARI: Actually, I am quite optimistic. I would say, for the first time in two years, I feel we have something that can hold. Of course, there will be violations. There will be clashes. But by and large, I don't see the Israelis or the Palestinians or the region having any appetite to really restore, resume the kind of full-fledged war that we saw over the last two years.
MARTÍNEZ: Just because of that, you don't feel that no one has an appetite to keep going? Because as you said, there are clashes here and there. But clashes can lead to bigger things.
AL-OMARI: Oh, absolutely. I mean, things can always go wrong. But by and large, I think I see momentum that I have not seen in the last two years. I mean, just look at the images coming from Israel and from the Palestinians, the joy, the celebration. I think people are just exhausted for this war that has, by now, lost any direction and any meaning.
MARTÍNEZ: All right, so let's get to the proposed interim body that we just heard about. The plan that was brokered by the Trump administration calls for a board of peace, which is a committee of Palestinians and technocrats that are going to be led by President Trump and Tony Blair, the former British prime minister. What are your thoughts on this proposed interim body?
AL-OMARI: I mean, look, I mean, in theory, this looks like the right and the best that we can hope for right now. But there are so many things that are unclear. You mentioned Tony Blair. We're no longer sure that it's going to be Tony Blair. Who are the Palestinians? Who's going to choose them? What powers they would have? Who's going to take care of security? I mean, there's a lot of questions out there. What we see right now is the beginning of a process, by no means the end of this process. And in the meantime, you know, time passes. And unless quick decisions are made to stand this up, there's a real chance that Hamas might reassert itself, as we've seen the last couple of days, and we end up where we were on October 6.
MARTÍNEZ: So you mentioned who are the Palestinians, because yeah, that's the stickiest question of all, right? The Palestinian Authority, how much authority do you think they will have over Gaza going forward?
AL-OMARI: Look, I mean, I actually think if you look at the Trump plan, there is mention of the Palestinian Authority in vague terms. And that, I would say, is actually an achievement for Arab diplomacy. We have to remember that Israel was very insistent that the Palestinian Authority has no role. And the mere mention of it is actually an achievement. However, that said, the Palestinian Authority today is so weak, so discredited. If you look at public opinion polling, at some point, 94% wanted the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to resign. Eighty percent consistently think that the Palestinian Authority is corrupt. A majority think that it's a liability rather than an asset to the Palestinian people. So without really reforming this Palestinian Authority, it's very hard to see how it can actually take control.
MARTÍNEZ: Yeah, Palestinian Authority lost control at Gaza way back in 2007. They do want to partner with the United States and the Trump administration. Do you see that President Abbas must exit for that to even be a remote possibility?
AL-OMARI: I believe so. I mean, he's 90. Unfortunately, in the public opinion, in the public mind of Palestinians, he's associated with failure. Whether it's failure in achieving Palestinian statehood through diplomacy or failure in governance. It's very hard to see how he can be politically rehabilitated. We need new blood. We need a new generation of leaders who can reignite the public imagination.
MARTÍNEZ: Part of the deal, though, would be that the Palestinian Authority would have to go through reforms. Is that possible? Do you think the Palestinian Authority can go through significant reforms?
AL-OMARI: Absolutely. And I'm very certain because we've seen it in the past. Under former Prime Minister Salam Fayyad, at the end of the first decade of this century, very significant reforms were done. Within two years, I think the World Bank, IMF and others said they are at a level to achieve statehood. So I think it's possible. But there are a number of obstacles that have to be met. Some of them are political, domestic, relating to how to ensure that both Hamas and Abbas do not impede reform. But also, some of them relate to Israel. Without Israeli cooperation, any reform efforts would fail.
MARTÍNEZ: Right, because if Benjamin Netanyahu rejects Gaza being run by the Palestinian Authority.
AL-OMARI: Oh, absolutely. I mean, he rejects Gaza being run by the PA. But also, he had spent the last 10 years, at least, weakening the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank itself. So Israel has to, first of all, refrain from the negative actions that it's done to undermine the PA, but also, frankly, proactively work if it wants to help the reform process, if it wants it to succeed.
MARTÍNEZ: How much do neighbors, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have to maybe exercise their influence a bit?
AL-OMARI: Actually, a lot because the Arab countries have the most leverage on the Palestinian Authority. And the leverage will have to come on three different fronts. One is political. We talked about the need for Abbas to step down. Only the Arabs can push him in that direction. Two, that's obvious, is financial. But three, which is really kind of, I think, the new element that's being thrown in here, these countries have now the technical ability to come and help in the reform efforts. If you go to Saudi Arabia today or to the Arab Emirates, you'll see very, very efficient, quite clean government. You see great education curricula and systems. And they can bring these kind of homegrown, culturally appropriate lessons learned into reforming the PA. So have a huge role to play if they choose to play it.
MARTÍNEZ: If not Abbas, then is there a Palestinian leader or group of leaders that is capable of uniting the residents of Gaza?
AL-OMARI: At the moment, it cannot be Abbas. And it has to be a coalition of leaders. However, I would caution against kind of, you know, waiting for the knight in shining armor. The problem we have in the Palestinian system is structural. Without dealing with it - how do you, you know, reinvigorate the political system? - it will always be vulnerable. However, yes, in the short term, you have to have a coalition of people who kind of represent different constituencies.
MARTÍNEZ: Considering how much President Trump made this deal happen, if in a few years - well, I should say, in a few years when he's no longer president, will this deal still hold?
AL-OMARI: Actually, we're not thinking in terms of years.
MARTÍNEZ: OK.
AL-OMARI: We're thinking in terms of months right now. You know, if it holds for months, we're good. But the question, and I think this is what the region is looking for, can President Trump maintain focus? Yes, he made this deal happen. And he gets credit for that. But will he focus, or will his attention turn elsewhere? I think this is the biggest question that I hear coming from Arab officials.
MARTÍNEZ: All right, Ghaith al-Omari, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Thanks a lot.
AL-OMARI: Thank you.
(SOUNDBITE OF THE AMERICAN DOLLAR'S "ANYTHING YOU SYNTHESIZE") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
