LEILA FADEL, HOST:
So what's ahead for the Republican Party in 2026? To get into that, we're joined by Republican strategist Alex Conant. Good morning, and a belated Merry Christmas.
ALEX CONANT: Good morning. Merry Christmas.
FADEL: So some pretty grim records there - longest government shutdown, least bills passed, most House members leaving. This is a Republican-controlled Congress. Given this record, how is the party thinking about messaging and appealing to Americans going into 2026 and the midterms?
CONANT: Well, right now, the big focus is going to be on selling the tax cuts that the president and Congress passed last summer, which, Republicans argue, have already had a measurable, positive impact on the economy. You look at the GDP numbers that were released earlier this week that showed really high third-quarter growth. The White House feels confident that is just the beginning of what's going to be a banner year in 2026. And if the economy is strong and people start perceiving that it is strong, Republicans should be fine in the midterms.
FADEL: And that's - but that's the challenge, right? I mean, Americans aren't perceiving that right now. They don't feel good about the economy, and a lot of them put that blame on the party in power.
CONANT: Of course. I mean, I think the president always owns the economy. And look, Americans still remember when - what prices were like before the inflation that we've had over the last three or four years. But inflation is basically over. The White House and the Fed, I think, have done a good job of getting a handle on it. We've seen very low inflation to the point where the Fed is now cutting interest rates. That, coupled with strong GDP growth, continued low unemployment - the hope is that by next November, Americans are feeling much better about the economy, and Republicans will benefit from that at the polls.
FADEL: Interesting. So this now-weakness may turn into a strength in the new year. You know, we're going into 2026, and that means another deadline that could lead to a government shutdown. If that were to happen - you know, last time we saw the Republican approach, which was to wait it out and blame the Democrats for the situation, which kind of worked. If Congress faces another government shutdown at the end of January, how do you expect House Speaker Mike Johnson to approach messaging for his party and for the public?
CONANT: Well, as you said, the last time the government shut down for 40-plus days, Democrats suffered the most, and they ended up caving completely to reopen it. I'm not sure Democrats want to repeat that and shut down the government again, and I know Congress is working very hard to pass bipartisan...
FADEL: Right. But I think both parties suffered - right? - when it came to perception with the American public. People were angry at Washington. So would simply blaming the Democrats again be as effective?
CONANT: Well, it takes two parties to shut down the government, right? And so I don't think Republicans are interested in shutting it down. I don't know that Democrats are interested in shutting it down, but I think you're right, there is going to be a big funding deadline at the end of January. I think right now, both parties see value in not shutting down the government. But if it does shut down, of course, parties are going to - people are going to blame both parties. It's also, I think, why you're seeing so many - both Republicans and Democrats - I think there's 40-plus, 50-plus members of Congress who are not returning next year. You might see more retirements if we shut down the government, simply because it's not a fun place to be.
FADEL: I want to talk about the fissures we've been seeing in the party. I mean, we saw that Mike Johnson really didn't have full control of his caucus in the last few months. I mean, do you expect him to remain speaker in the year ahead?
CONANT: I do expect him to remain speaker simply because nobody else wants the job. It's got to be one of the worst jobs in America, especially with a majority as slim as his. But you're right. You're seeing, you know, just a lot of unhappiness, I think, within Congress, and especially within the Republican conference. And you're also starting to see some of the battles over the future of the Republican Party that have been under the surface for the last few years. They're starting to come up as we get closer to President Trump being a truly lame duck president.
FADEL: What happens to the party when President Trump's no longer at the top of the ballot? Is there a clear leader of the future of this party?
CONANT: There's not. I mean, I think a lot of people would look to JD Vance, but President Trump's political support has never been transferable. It's why we've lost every election that he hasn't been at the top of the ballot in the last decade. So I think it's an open question as to who will be our next leader, and what does that coalition look like? It could be JD Vance, but I think there's a lot of others that are considering running as well.
FADEL: Republican strategist Alex Conant. Thank you so much for your time.
CONANT: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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