SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said at the Munich Security Conference today the U.S. is seeking concessions from Ukraine in peace talks that it does not from Russia. This after Secretary of State Rubio didn't attend a high-level meeting on Ukraine. Meanwhile, allies pledged another military aid package for Ukraine - $35 billion, mostly from the United Kingdom. And, of course, Russia continues to strike Ukraine with missiles and drones, leaving tens of thousands of people without power and water.
Fiona Hill is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution's Center on the U.S. and Europe. She served as deputy assistant to the president and senior director for European and Russian affairs on the U.S. National Security Council during the first Trump administration. Ms. Hill, thanks so much for being with us.
FIONA HILL: Thank you, Scott. Great to be with you.
SIMON: We've seen round after round of talks - another round of talks just announced yesterday. Are you expecting any progress or just more talk?
HILL: Well, I think at this stage, it's going to be more talk because we've reached, you know, still, I mean, yet again, another juncture where there's no incentive for Russia, certainly for Vladimir Putin, to change his course of action. I mean, he's holding firm, as we're all very well aware. He still has maximalist demands toward Ukraine. And as President Zelenskyy rightfully said, all the concessions are going to be on Ukraine's part at this moment.
But, of course - and it's also a very strange circumstance because the casualty rate in Russia is sky-high at this point. I mean, we just reached 2 million casualties overall in the war. And, you know, the Russians are literally, you know, expending - which is a terrible, you know, term to use, but I think how Putin thinks about it - you know, tens of thousands of people every time they make some incremental gain on the ground in Ukraine. But Putin thinks it's worth it because he does not believe, and I don't think any of the recent developments would suggest, that things are going to change in any appreciable way to the advantage of Ukraine.
SIMON: The United States can obviously threaten to withhold military aid to Ukraine and even once order to pause. Does it have any leverage with Russia?
HILL: Well, of course it has leverage with Russia, but I don't think President Trump wants to use it, not in least in the way that would be necessary to bring the whole war to a halt because it would require a very firm commitment to helping Ukraine defend itself. And we're still negotiating backwards and forwards what kind of security guarantees the U.S., along with Europe, would actually offer Ukraine if it calls a halt to the hostilities. And again, it's really for Ukraine to call a halt rather than Russia.
And, of course, there's also this question about Ukraine conceding territory that it actually still holds militarily to Russia. So, you know, we have a lot of talk about more sanctions, and they have had an impact. But it's really also a question of holding firm politically and making it very clear that the United States is there for the long haul to support the Europeans in helping Ukraine fend the Russians off, you know, literally, making it impossible for Russia to move any further forward. And we certainly don't have that.
SIMON: I have to ask. You noted the extraordinary number of casualties - apparently more losses than any since World War II by any major power. Can both sides keep going?
HILL: Well, unfortunately, they can for a while. I mean, this a horrible situation that we're in. It's definitely the classic version of a war of attrition. I mean, the Russians have lost 20 times the casualties that the Soviet Union, which also included Ukraine in that time, lost in Afghanistan, for example. You know, we've already noted many times that in January we passed this really rather terrible threshold in which Russia has been fighting in Ukraine longer than the Soviet Union - again with Ukraine as part of it - fought Nazi Germany in World War II.
So, I mean, for any rational person, this would seem that this is not sustainable. But military experts think that both Ukraine and Russia can keep going. So the real question is how to change the external environment in such a way that it incentivizes Russia to stop, because the Ukrainians are going to keep fighting as long as they possibly can because it's existential for them. This is really a war of choice on the part of Vladimir Putin, so the choice is his to stop or not, and we haven't got the incentive structure there right now to make him do so.
SIMON: How would you describe that relationship between President Trump and President Putin?
HILL: It's not really a relationship, let's be absolutely honest about it. Putin continues to play President Trump. And we have all the signs that President Trump remains intimidated to some degree by Vladimir Putin and is also desirous of changing the nature of the relationship between Russia and the United States. I mean, what we're seeing here is a negotiation between the United States and Russia on the terms of a new agreement - talking about business deals, for example, and all kinds of other bilateral issues, not just about what's happening on the ground in Ukraine.
SIMON: You mentioned - invoked the word existential, talking about Ukraine's interest. Do they also confront a situation where at one point they might - to survive as a country in any semblance, they might need to cede some territory to Russia?
HILL: Well, of course. That's what they're talking about. But they want a guarantee that Russia won't just come back at them again, you know, at some other point, you know, where they have the capacity to, you know, relaunch another offensive, or that they won't undermine them economically and politically as, you know, we've seen in the past with other countries.
SIMON: Fiona Hill, senior fellow at the Brooking (ph) Institution Center on the United States and Europe. Thank you so much for speaking with us.
HILL: Thanks, Scott. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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