JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
President Trump delivers tonight's State of the Union at a moment when he's facing considerable political challenges. NPR's Domenico Montanaro takes a look back to see what we might expect.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Here's something you probably won't hear President Trump say tonight.
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GERALD FORD: And I must say to you that the state of the union is not good.
MONTANARO: That was Gerald Ford in 1975. He's the only U.S. president to explicitly say in a State of the Union address that the state of the union was, in fact, not good. And he had reason to. He had assumed office only months earlier after President Nixon resigned in the wake of the Watergate scandal. The country was facing a lot of challenges.
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FORD: Millions of Americans are out of work. Recession and inflation are eroding the money of millions more. Prices are too high, and sales are too slow.
MONTANARO: Sound familiar? Prices, the cost of living are top concerns for voters now, and Trump has struggled when talking about it, often dismissing concerns. Here he was at a rally in Georgia last week.
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PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: They would say affordability. Everybody would say, oh, Trump's caused - no, no. They caused the affordability problem, and we've solved it.
MONTANARO: Presidents often get more blame and credit than they deserve on the economy, but polling shows people say Trump's policies, particularly his tariffs, are making things worse. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll this month finds 59% disapprove of the job that he's doing on the economy. Majorities disapprove of the job he's doing on foreign policy. Two-thirds say his immigration enforcement has gone too far. And perhaps no surprise, then, 57% say the state of the union is not strong. When presidents in the past have faced significant political headwinds, they've often dialed it back in State of the Union addresses, even trying to joke about their fortunes, like Bill Clinton did in 1995.
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BILL CLINTON: If we agree on nothing else tonight, we must agree that the American people certainly voted for change in 1992 and in 1994.
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MONTANARO: Wait for it.
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CLINTON: And as I look out at you, I know how some of you must have felt in 1992.
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MONTANARO: Just months earlier, Republicans rode a conservative wave to win control of Congress two years after Clinton himself won the presidency. As he then tried to position himself for reelection, Clinton sought common ground with a nod to the political right.
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CLINTON: The era of big government is over.
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MONTANARO: Presidents have also tried to find higher ground even after defeat.
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GEORGE W BUSH: Tonight, I have the high privilege and distinct honor of my own as the first president to begin the State of the Union message with these words - Madam Speaker...
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MONTANARO: George W. Bush in 2007, after his party lost control of Congress, congratulating the then-new speaker of the House, Democrat Nancy Pelosi. Presidents have also tried to address the issues that put them in a difficult position in the first place.
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BARACK OBAMA: Now, I have heard rumors that a few of you still have concerns about our new health care law.
MONTANARO: Barack Obama in 2011, just after his party lost a whopping 63 seats and control of the House.
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OBAMA: So let me be the first to say that anything can be improved.
MONTANARO: Even Trump in 2018, also suffering from low approval ratings, called for compromise on a comprehensive immigration overhaul.
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TRUMP: One where nobody gets everything they want, but where our country gets the critical reforms it needs and must have.
MONTANARO: He proposed a path to citizenship for people brought to the United States as children, known as DREAMers, and funding a wall along the southern U.S. border, as well as other restrictions. It went nowhere. Republicans wound up losing control of the House that November. Trump has shown no signs of compromise in this second term, and he has a lot of work to do, starting with this speech, to try to mitigate potential big losses for Republicans this November. Domenico Montanaro, NPR News, Washington.
(SOUNDBITE OF LANA DEL REY SONG, "WEST COAST") Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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