A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
President Trump is raising the potential for military strikes on Iran.
(SOUNDBITE OF STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: My preference is to solve this problem through diplomacy. But one thing is certain. I will never allow the world's No. 1 sponsor of terror, which they are by far, to have a nuclear weapon. Can't let that happen.
MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
That was the president at his State of the Union address earlier this week. Talks between the two sides are due to continue next week. In the meantime, Vice President JD Vance is due to meet today with Oman's foreign minister, who has served as a mediator in the talks. That's according to a source familiar with the meeting who is not authorized to speak on the record. In a few minutes, we'll speak with a former Middle East adviser about how U.S. allies are responding. But first, let's get the latest information.
MARTÍNEZ: NPR White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez has been following the president's rhetoric about Iran. So, Franco, what has to happen from Iran's point of view in order for the U.S. not to attack it?
FRANCO ORDOÑEZ, BYLINE: You know, the thing, A, is Trump hasn't really explained what his objectives are. What does success look like? He also hasn't asked Congress for authorization or taken the opportunity to thoroughly explain to the American people his reasoning.
MARTÍNEZ: OK. So what has he said?
ORDOÑEZ: Well, in his speech, President Trump touched on a few different reasons. I mean, first was stopping the nuclear program. Second is helping protesters we promised to back if more were killed. Well, tens of thousands more have been killed. You know, then there is the stopping of the ballistic missile program that he claims are almost able to reach the U.S.
MARTÍNEZ: What about regime change?
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. I mean, that's another possible reason. And, you know, A, I mean, we should be clear that Trump is not the first president to deal with this Iran issue. I mean, former President Obama was widely criticized for the nuclear deal that he reached. Many saw it as weak and actually empowering of Iran economically. During the George W. Bush years, Iran accelerated its nuclear program. Bush, of course, labeled Iran part of its axis of evil. You know, this has really been an issue since the revolution in 1979. I mean, Iran had been a modern society, and the government was actually an ally to the U.S. The regime, though, that took over was largely built in opposition to the U.S. and to Israel.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So then what exactly are the options? And actually, what kind of timeline are we talking about now?
ORDOÑEZ: I mean, it seems focused on two likely sets of targets. One would be, you know, limited strikes, perhaps against Iran's ballistic missile program or nuclear targets or leadership maybe. A second could be something bigger - a longer campaign aimed at destabilizing or possibly overthrowing the regime. Matthew Kroenig, who worked on the Iranian file at the Pentagon, he told me the administration will want to consider Iran's response, noting that Iran's response last time was limited because they knew, or probably knew, that the U.S. had limited aims.
MATTHEW KROENIG: If I were advising the president and he were determined to follow through on the redline and use force, I would advocate for a more limited strike and communicate to the regime that this is just a limited strike to try to induce them to engage in token retaliation and hope that the conflict can de-escalate.
MARTÍNEZ: All right. So how soon could all of this happen?
ORDOÑEZ: Yeah. It could be very soon. The U.S. now has a massive military presence in the Middle East, the largest since the run-up to the Iraq War. The U.S. held a third round of negotiations with Iranian officials in Geneva Thursday, as you noted, in what observers say may be the last chance to prevent a war. I mean, clearly, those meetings are very important. Now, U.S. officials are not saying these meetings are decisive, but they're also expressing a lot of frustration about progress on nuclear talks or lack of progress, but also over the fact that Iran refuses to negotiate on ballistic missiles. And they say that's a, quote, "big, big problem."
MARTÍNEZ: That's White House correspondent Franco Ordoñez. Thanks a lot.
ORDOÑEZ: Thanks, A. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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