MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
We've been hearing from a variety of voices as the Trump administration's Iran strategy takes place. Today, we're going to hear from Dennis Ross. He co-founded the advocacy group United Against Nuclear Iran. He helped shape the U.S. role in the Middle East process in the George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton administrations, and he briefly served as a special adviser on Iran in the Obama administration, and he's with us now. Ambassador, good morning. Thanks for joining us once again.
DENNIS ROSS: Yeah. Good to be with you. Thank you.
MARTIN: So as we just heard, U.S. strikes could be imminent on Iran. Israel has made it clear that it supports an aggressive posture by the U.S. to make sure that Iran does not advance with a nuclear sort of program. But are there other American allies in the region that support strikes on Iran at this point?
ROSS: You know, it's kind of an anomaly, if you look at this from a historic perspective, because I think today, most of the countries in the region believe that Iran is already quite weakened. And so unless they know that what the U.S. is going to do is make certain that Iran can never be a threat towards them and isn't going to be a threat towards them now, they probably will be just as happy not to see strikes take place because there's a fear on their part that Iran will retaliate against them. They already look at Iran as being weakened, so their attitude is, unless you can ensure us that we're not going to be the recipient of any Iranian attacks right now, we would just as soon you not do it.
MARTIN: Are there any partners that are particularly at risk?
ROSS: I think the ones that are most at risk are the ones that are closest to the Iranians. You look at the UAE, Bahrain, where obviously the Fifth Fleet has been headquartered, they would be the ones at one level, would say, gee, if there's never going to be a threat, that's great. But we're the ones who are closest to them. We're the ones most vulnerable. We don't necessarily have the means to ensure that we can stop their missiles, drones or cruise missiles. So they would be the ones, I think, who would feel it most acutely. The Saudis probably also as well because in 2019, the Iranians, while they didn't admit it, they attacked Abqaiq, which is the single most important oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia. So all those countries there who feel they don't necessarily have the means to stop Iranian attacks would feel that kind of a vulnerability.
MARTIN: Is the administration, in your view or to your knowledge, making any particular appeal to its allies in the region who might be skeptical or concerned about military action? Is there something that they're saying to them to try to persuade them that this is the right course?
ROSS: Well, I think what they're doing is they're stepping up the level of potential cooperation and our ability to defend them. The presence that we have put into the region now is the biggest in two decades. It is very heavy not just with offensive capability, but with defensive missile capability, with the ability through aircraft and the Aegis destroyers, to be able to shoot down a lot of what the Iranians would be able to shoot at them. But I think the general sense in the region right now is, again, unless you can assure us that this is going to be the end, we're going to see threats from the Iranians, can't you find a way to do this without going to war? I think that's the general sentiment.
MARTIN: Can the U.S. go it alone without strong support from most of its allies in the region?
ROSS: Yeah. At this point, if you were talking about a really prolonged war, I think the answer would be it would become hard. If you're talking about something that is relatively short, something that looks like the 12-day war that took place last June, I think the answer would, be the U.S. can do this without any real help from those in the region. The one country that's likely to join the U.S. is Israel. The Israelis almost certainly would not initiate it. But they also are convinced that if the U.S. hits Iran, Iran will hit them with ballistic missiles. So the Israelis, for sure, would be joining and would have the ballistic missiles as their most important target.
MARTIN: Before we let you go, Ambassador, I don't know that you necessarily consider this part of your portfolio, but the concern is that the president has not really prepared the American people for what could be next. And I wonder if you think that's true. Some argue that his State of the Union address, for example, was an opportunity for him to do so, and he didn't really do that. And I just wonder, what's your take on that?
ROSS: Well, I think generally, if you're going to use force and it may be for more than a day, it makes sense to lay out the rationale, the objectives, the means you're use - you're going to apply to achieve that objective. The president focused exclusively on the nuclear issue. He mentioned ballistic missiles but only in terms of them developing a longer-range ballistic missile. There was not a rationale to go after a wide array of Iranian targets. There was not a rationale to explain regime change other than saying that this is a terrible regime. That's true. There's a lot of terrible regimes.
MARTIN: OK. That is former U.S. Ambassador Dennis Ross. Ambassador Ross, thanks so much.
ROSS: You're welcome. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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