A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Russia is helping to keep the Iranian regime afloat. Historian and Russia expert Sergey Radchenko of Johns Hopkins University joins us now to discuss the dynamics of that relationship. So how exactly is Russia supporting Iran in the war at this point?
SERGEY RADCHENKO: Well, A, I think there is a misconception about Russia's support for Iran. Some people think that the two countries are in an alliance. They do have a treaty on comprehensive strategic partnership, which was signed last year, but they're not military allies, so Russia is not bound to help Iran. We have had some information that Russia is providing some data to Iran to target American installations. That is probably on a limited scale. But otherwise, you know, Russia is looking as Iran is facing this onslaught from the United States, and I think Putin is not in a great hurry to help.
MARTÍNEZ: So Russia wouldn't send soldiers to Iran to help against...
RADCHENKO: There is absolutely...
MARTÍNEZ: OK.
RADCHENKO: ...No way that Russia is going to send soldiers or...
MARTÍNEZ: OK.
RADCHENKO: ...Even a large quantity of weapons, which Russia requires for its own war in Ukraine, which, of course, is ongoing.
MARTÍNEZ: Right. So that's what I was going to ask you. I mean, I would imagine resources get strained or drained if they were to even think about something like that.
RADCHENKO: Well, exactly. And Russia is no longer the superpower that the Soviet Union was with, you know, clients and allies around the world. No, Russia is looking after its own interests, and it has seen its clients - such as they were overthrown or, you know, ousted in various countries, whether it's Syria, most recently Venezuela. And, of course, Ali Khamenei - although never a client of Moscow's but, you know, enjoying a good relationship, I suppose, with Russia - was also killed in an American airstrike. And the Russians can't do anything about it.
MARTÍNEZ: What do you think would be the No. 1 thing that President Putin has to gain by being a close ally of the Iranian regime right now?
RADCHENKO: He doesn't really have all that much to gain. He doesn't want to be dragged into this conflict. What he does benefit from is a slow-running war which keeps the Americans distracted from Ukraine, the transatlantic alliance in a state of considerable disarray - because, of course, the Europeans are not fully on board with the American policy in the Middle East - and also oil prices high because that is something that will keep Putin's coffers full.
MARTÍNEZ: Is the Iran war changing Russia's influence in the Middle East?
RADCHENKO: I think Russia's influence in the Middle East has declined. It declined a long time ago. I mean, the debacle in Syria was a sign that Russia was losing influence in the Middle East. And I think since the war in Ukraine, since Russia invaded Ukraine, Putin really has had to concentrate on that particular theater. And he doesn't really have all that much money, weapons, energy to spare for other areas of the world, especially the Middle East. China is a much more interesting player here, I think. And I think that's where - you know, with China, it's interesting what the Chinese are thinking about all of this. But the Russians have lost their influence, and that's pretty clear.
MARTÍNEZ: In what way is China more interesting to you right now?
RADCHENKO: Well, the Chinese, of course, have a lot to lose from this war, unlike the Russians, who have a lot to gain from the distraction that the Americans have from this war and also from higher oil prices. The Chinese, rather, have a lot to lose from higher oil prices, and so it is likely that they will turn to Russia perhaps for more oil and gas. The Chinese cannot be happy about their partner in the Middle East being attacked like this, and they cannot be happy about Ali Khamenei being targeted and killed in an airstrike. I think they will also draw their own conclusions - and those are not going to be very favorable - for themselves.
MARTÍNEZ: If - yeah, Sergey, if, for whatever reason, Russia does become more involved, if it's just - like, we're speculating on a scenario here - what might that look like?
RADCHENKO: Well, the Russians could provide, I suppose, some more data, targeting data for the Iranians. They could - you could see an increase in military cooperation in the sense of the Russians potentially providing Iran with some antiaircraft weapons, but that's very unlikely because the Russians need those weapons. And also, they're not too happy about potentially upsetting the Americans. You know, Russia does not want to be directly engaged in a conflict with the United States over Iran. It's not in Putin's interest.
MARTÍNEZ: That's Sergey Radchenko, the Wilson E. Schmidt distinguished professor at Johns Hopkins University. Thank you very much.
RADCHENKO: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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