SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
We're now going to hear about Iran's nuclear program. It was curtailed and open to U.N. inspections in exchange for sanctions relief during the Obama era. President Trump pulled the U.S. out of the deal during his first term, and today, Iran is estimated to have nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium enriched at up to 60%. Ninety percent is considered weapons-grade by the U.N.'s nuclear agency. Iran's nuclear program is one of the main reasons given for why the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran. We're joined now by Ariane Tabatabai. She is the public service fellow at Lawfare and served at State and Defense departments in the Biden administration. Thanks so much for being with us.
ARIANE TABATABAI: Thanks so much for having me back, Scott.
SIMON: Iran insists its nuclear program is civilian, not military. What do you think?
TABATABAI: Well, the short answer is that the most recent open-source assessments from reliable sources don't indicate a weapons program actively underway in Iran. And I want to break this down a little bit by talking about two of those sources. One is the U.S. intelligence community and its assessments, and the other is the U.N. watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and what it has said recently about the program.
So last year, just before the summer strikes on Iran's nuclear program, the U.S. intelligence community assessed in what's called the annual threat assessment that Iran had not made a decision to pursue a nuclear weapon. At the time, the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, who's obviously appointed by President Trump, said in an opening statement to Congress - and I'm going to quote her here; I think it's worth quoting her - "the IC continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon, and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003."
And then this week, we had the annual threat assessment, again, that was published. And what it essentially said is that Iran was not rebuilding the enrichment program since the strikes over the summer. Now, you noted it. President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal in his first term. And since then, and until the summer, Iran had been accumulating nuclear material. It had been building knowledge on its nuclear program, and the assessment was that it could relatively quickly build a nuclear weapon if it made the decision to do so. But the if it made the decision to do so is really the operative thing. It's not a technical concern that Iran would have with weaponizing its program. It's that it had not made the decision to weaponize. And I mentioned the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy...
SIMON: Yeah.
TABATABAI: ...Agency. I want to quote its director general from just a couple of weeks ago. He said that "we don't see a structured program to manufacture nuclear weapons" in Iran. So here are the two go-to sources for this issue, and they're both not characterizing Iran's nuclear program as military at this moment.
SIMON: So in your judgment, not an imminent threat?
TABATABAI: I think that's right.
SIMON: President Trump said that Iran's nuclear program was obliterated in U.S. strikes last year. Benjamin Netanyahu says Iran no longer has the capacity to enrich uranium. And today, as we note, Israel - or, I'm sorry. Forgive me. Today, the U.S. struck Iran's Natanz nuclear facility. What is left of Iran's nuclear program?
TABATABAI: Well, look, there is a few things left of Iran's nuclear program. You know, I think you're right to point out that over the summer, the president noted that Iran's program had been essentially totally destroyed. And here we are, just a few months later, attacking the program again because it was evidently not entirely destroyed. There are elements of the program that you cannot just entirely take out - right? - unless you're willing to do a lot more than what we're doing currently. So there is the issue of the nuclear material, the highly enriched uranium, and you noted that. There is 440-ish kilograms of it, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. That is roughly enough material for 10 nuclear weapons. There is the broader infrastructure.
And then the piece that we don't talk about as often is the knowledge base. This is a program that has been underway for decades at this point. I mean, it goes back to even prior to the Revolution. So you have a cohort, a cadre of people who've been working on this issue who have been working on the nuclear program. And unless we're willing to take out every single one of them, there is always going to be remnants and some knowledge and some infrastructure for them to be able to resume their nuclear activities. And it would take a lot to - you know, beyond even just taking out every person I just mentioned, it would take a lot militarily for us to be able to essentially completely eliminate the Iranian nuclear program.
SIMON: Let me ask you this. Why would Iran want to build a nuclear weapon? The U.S. and Israel have far greater stockpiles.
TABATABAI: Well, the thing is - and, you know, we see this in the case of Europe, for example, vis-a-vie Russia - you don't necessarily need to match the number of nuclear weapons that a country has to be able to deter them, right? So, you know, Iran would not need to build thousands or even hundreds of nuclear weapons. We see this in the case of the - of North Korea very specifically. North Korea does not have anywhere close to our arsenal, and yet we're not talking about invading North Korea as we are with Iran. So the deterrent factor is - you know, comes from just having a few nuclear weapons and the credibility of that threat, just knowing that the country would be willing to use the nuclear weapon against adversaries.
SIMON: Well, then I have to ask, is attacking Iran for its nuclear program just going to strengthen their conviction, no matter the regime, that they have to have a nuclear program?
TABATABAI: That is precisely my fear, Scott, that we are actually reinforcing the view within Iran and the remaining leadership - including the previous supreme leader's son, who's now the supreme leader - that they do need a nuclear weapon in a way that they didn't just two years ago.
SIMON: Ariane Tabatabai, a public service fellow at Lawfare. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
TABATABAI: Thanks, Scott.
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