STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
So what are the prospects for peace? Richard Nephew was the lead sanctions expert for the U.S. team that negotiated a nuclear deal with Iran back in 2015. He also served as deputy special envoy for Iran in the Biden administration. Mr. Nephew, good morning.
RICHARD NEPHEW: Good morning.
INSKEEP: Welcome back. Do you look at the U.S. offer and the Iranian proposal and see in there the outlines of an agreement?
NEPHEW: No, not really. I think both sides, at this point, are still pretty confident that they can improve their terms through military action. And so I look at both of those proposals as being kind of maximalist first stabs towards what could be eventually an agreement or a ceasefire, but I think we're still a ways from that.
INSKEEP: We have a Truth Social post from President Trump here today, where he insists that they've been militarily obliterated - the Iranians. They have zero chance of a comeback. I think that's what you mean when you say that each side would think they're gaining militarily. So why negotiate now?
NEPHEW: Yeah, exactly. And, you know, if you read any of the Iranian social media posts, you know, they're talking about destroying U.S. bases and having inflicted severe damage on Gulf states and, you know, our allies and partners as a result. So I think that the posturing from both sides is one of we don't actually need to talk here. We're doing you a favor, and that's not usually conducive to getting to a compromise for an agreement.
INSKEEP: Let me talk through something else that's happening, even as we hear about these discussions indirectly between the U.S. and Iran. The 82nd Airborne Division, a portion of it, has been sent to the Middle East. We don't know why. We don't know what the possible objective would be for them or for some Marine troops that have been sent to the region. But there's talk of seizing Kharg Island, this island in the Persian Gulf that is the main oil terminal for Iran. Let's say the U.S. grabbed that island. Does that give the U.S. some kind of added leverage in negotiations?
NEPHEW: Well, I think it gives leverage. Sure. I mean, the Iranians would want Kharg back, but I don't think that it, you know, ends Iran's ability or willingness to continue fighting. I mean, first of all, Iran has other oil export terminals, not as big, not as important as Kharg, but they've got the ability to continue exporting oil. And on top of that, Kharg is fairly up in the Persian Gulf and, you know, a lot closer to Iranian territory, and the ability of the Iranians to retaliate and target it in their own right. So I think there are risks associated with taking Kharg that the Iranians, to some extent, can mitigate through their own external oil terminal operations and similar. And so for the U.S., you would have to hope that this would be a checkmate maneuver. It might not. It just - might just be the next step of escalation.
INSKEEP: Does simply threatening to drop paratroopers somewhere in the region help with negotiations?
NEPHEW: I don't think so. I think, look, the Iranians understand that we have got a significant about - amount of military force, both in the region and the ability to bring it to the region. I don't think any of this has been about signaling to Iran that we have a successful, advanced, you know, very sophisticated, capable military. They know all that. From their perspective, that's OK because they are not fighting the same type of war as, you know, frankly, we might hope them to fight. They're working asymmetrically. They're using terrorism. They're using drone warfare. And all of those capabilities are not actually deterred or managed necessarily by having the 82nd Airborne, the Marines or anyone else really in theater.
INSKEEP: Having dealt with Iran directly or indirectly in recent years, you must be familiar with a lot of the Iranian figures who have been killed over the last few weeks, such as Ali Larijani who was seen as a more pragmatic person, perhaps than some others, as well as some of the figures who have risen to the top as the leadership is killed. Do you think that anybody is in a position of power in Iran right now that could make a deal?
NEPHEW: I think there are people who could make a deal, but they're completely disincentivized to do so and fairly disinterested. You know, the people who are in charge now truly, definitively, are the IRGC and their cat's paw in the form of Mojtaba Khamenei. And, you know, at the end of the day, they are the kind of people who both have an incentive to continue fighting. They're the ones who are most dedicated to the idea that the regime, you know, both is in power, should remain in power, that they're not going to give concessions away to the United States or, frankly, to their own people.
And so from their perspective, this is just another one of these, you know, long campaigns that, you know, they can win. And they look to historical analogies like the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, and they say, listen, you know, we know that we're down now. We know we don't have the same capabilities, but we do have the ability to inflict a lot of pain. We're prepared to do so, and we're going to continue fighting until we are sure we've made it such that the United States and Israel will never do this again. They're trying to reestablish their own deterrence.
INSKEEP: You said their cat's paw, Mojtaba Khamenei. I understand you to be saying that Iran's supreme leader, the new supreme leader who has not been seen in public, is only a symbolic leader. You think the Revolutionary Guard is actually in charge here, is that right?
NEPHEW: Absolutely. And everything that we've heard about his selection is pretty clear that, you know, he was not the candidate that everybody wanted, you know, to have in power. He was the candidate of the IRGC, inclined to do what the IRGC asked him to do. He's long been linked to the IRGC and seen as somebody who is, you know, conducive to their interests. So I think that he should be reasonably seen as someone who is willing to do what the IRGC asks him to do rather than an independent political actor, as his father was.
INSKEEP: Richard Nephew, thanks very much. Pleasure to talk with you.
NEPHEW: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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