SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
Tonight, President Trump addresses the nation on the war in Iran, but what he'll say remains something of a mystery. When it comes to the month-old conflict, the White House has sent many conflicting signals, sometimes suggesting a de-escalation, other times an escalation.
For more on what could be next, we are joined by NPR White House correspondent Deepa Shivaram and NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Deepa, I want to start with you. Remind us what Trump has been saying just this week about the war and what we might be able to expect tonight.
DEEPA SHIVARAM, BYLINE: Yeah, well, President Trump has said a few times now that the war will wrap up in the next two to three weeks. And that's part of what he's expected to talk about tonight, according to a White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to discuss the contents of the speech tonight. And this official said that the president is also going to provide updates on U.S. operations and basically tout what the White House says is all the U.S. military successes so far in accomplishing the administration's goals in this war.
But keep in mind, the president has been pretty unclear on a lot of those goals. He's flip-flopped on a number of things, including his own goal of needing to remove Iran's uranium stockpiles. He's also been unclear on whether or not he wants to use U.S. troops to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for oil transport, and even the timeline on when the war will end has been shifting. Today, Trump told Reuters that the U.S. could end the war and return to more operations in Iran later. So there's been a lot of mixed messaging from the president, but he has made some repeated claims that seem to indicate that he wants to wrap up this war pretty soon.
DETROW: Tom, catch us up to speed on what the military objectives were, where those stand and the status of the U.S. forces who are still arriving in the region.
TOM BOWMAN, BYLINE: Well, Scott, I want to jump off on what Deepa said. The U.S. has clearly destroyed much of Iran's military, its navy, air force, and missile infrastructure. No question Iran has been severely weakened, but the regime is still in power. It still has some military capability left, and it still has some 1,000 pounds of highly enriched uranium, although it's buried under a mountain. So you could still go back and hit some targets, as Trump has said, especially the nuclear facilities.
Now, Scott, as far as the U.S. forces, some 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne have arrived in the region where you already have some 2,500 marines afloat, and another 2,500 marines are on the way, expected to arrive in the next 10 days or so. That's clearly not enough for a large-scale invasion, but they could take part in seizing Iran's main oil facilities on Kharg Island some 15 miles off Iran in the Gulf or maybe some of the ports on the mainland to pave the way to open the Strait of Hormuz. And with Trump supposedly saying it will wrap up in just two or three weeks, it's hard to imagine, with that timetable, you want to send ground forces into Iran.
DETROW: OK, so let's talk about the Strait of Hormuz. I have questions for both of you about that. Deepa, I want to start with you. Obviously, a huge strategic asset in this war, and one - Iran seems to exploit it pretty effectively. What has the closure of the Strait meant politically for the Trump White House?
SHIVARAM: I mean, to put it simply, it's been really bad for Trump's approval ratings on the economy, which were already low before this war started. And the interesting thing is that before the war, the Trump administration was promising to do more to lower costs for Americans, and they pointed to the work they had done to lower gas prices as a primary example of that. And then with the closure of the Strait during this war, gas prices have shot up again. A new poll from CNN out today shows that two-thirds of Americans say Trump's policies have worsened economic conditions in the U.S., and three-fourths say the economy is in poor shape. So this doesn't really bode well for Republicans going into midterm elections later this year at a time when voters are really worried about high costs.
DETROW: And Tom, the military side of this - we know the military prepared for years when it came to Iran, especially when it came to the vulnerability poised by the Strait of Hamuz. So what happened?
BOWMAN: Right. The military, especially the Marine Corps, has been studying this for decades, again, seizing islands or ports in Iran. What's surprising, Scott, to analysts is why the U.S. wasn't prepared for Iran to close the strait, which has long been seen as an obvious move by Iran. And now the obvious has led to this serious world economic headache. No one I know has been told what happened here, why the administration kind of dropped the ball - not the Hill or military folks I'm talking with.
Remember, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said on the strait, quote, "we have been dealing with it, and it's not a problem." Well, first of all, how is the U.S. dealing with it? He doesn't say. We see no movement of military force yet to reopen the strait, and it may not be a problem for Hegseth, but it is for everyone who fills up at the pump. Gas in my neighborhood is $1.10 more a gallon than a month ago.
DETROW: From a military perspective, what do the people you talk to make of the way that Trump's talking about this, saying there will be two or three more weeks of war? Like, how can you just declare a war over? I think many of us remember George W. Bush flying onto an aircraft carrier, giving a speech in front of a mission accomplished sign and the war lasting another decade.
BOWMAN: Well, sure, you can just say, we've degraded Iran's military, killed many of its political and military leaders, weakened this adversary. So the president can say, hey, looks good, but this is far different a strategic problem than you saw in Iraq, Scott. You could walk out of Iraq after destroying its military, seizing Baghdad, capturing its leader Saddam Hussein and, more importantly, realizing it had no weapons of mass destruction, which was the real stated concern there. The U.S. decided to stay and nationbuild, all the while being attacked by an aggressive insurgency. But Iraq had no real hold on the U.S. like we see here. It did not control the Gulf or the Strait of Hormuz. It could not be an economic threat to the U.S. and the world, as we see with Iran. That issue will have to be resolved, at least by the U.S. military reopening the strait, which it can do on its own, by the way, and maybe with NATO help.
DETROW: Deepa, lastly, have you seen any signs of cracks in Trump's base when it came to this decision, whether whether it's MAGA voters, whether it's Republicans in Congress?
SHIVARAM: You know, it's actually kind of, like, been a recent dipping point. The pressure on the economy has really led to a point where people are feeling this war in their pocketbooks. There was that CNN poll that I mentioned that showed that the percentage of Republicans who strongly approve of Trump's job performance dropped from 52% in January to now just 43%. So some signs of that, yeah.
DETROW: That is NPR White House correspondent Deepa Shivaram and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Thanks to you both.
BOWMAN: You're welcome.
SHIVARAM: Thank you.
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