SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
President Trump has had a week of frustrations. Gas prices are above $4 a gallon. He fired his attorney general, Pam Bondi, and his push to end birthright citizenship in the U.S. seemed to falter at the Supreme Court - all of this as Trump talked about ending the war with Iran without a clear plan. So we asked NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro as well as national security correspondent Greg Myre to join us to help us understand how all of this fits together. Happy Friday to both of you. And, Greg, I want to start with you. We had dramatic developments today with two U.S. war planes going down in Iran. Where does this stand right now?
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Yeah, these are the first two U.S. planes shot down over Iran in five weeks of war. The first one was an F-15. It's a very good fighter jet, and it was hit by Iranian fire in southwestern Iran with a pilot and a weapons officer on board. They both ejected, setting off an urgent rescue operation. One crew member has been rescued, and there's no word on the status of the other. This all comes from a U.S. official not authorized to speak publicly.
And then this afternoon, we got word, again, from a U.S. official speaking on condition of anonymity, that a second plane went down. This is an A-10 Warthog that was hit near the Iranian coastline. It's a different kind of plane. It's a low flying, slow moving plane with a powerful cannon, and the lone pilot was rescued. President Trump said just this week that Iran's air defenses had been completely destroyed, but today certainly showed there is still risk in the skies over Iran.
DETROW: Yeah. And, Domenico, walk us through everything else that happened this week and what it might mean for Trump politically.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Yeah, I mean, he's had a lot of tough weeks lately, especially with the war and gas prices tied together. But this week has really stood out and may be the one that we look back on if Democrats win the House and say, you know, that may be a place where everything kind of went south. He suffered some real embarrassments in the courts on the - on his ballroom, on public media funding and at the Supreme Court, where even the three justices he appointed sounded very skeptical of his case on birthright citizenship, and he was in the audience to hear it. You know, and voters continue to say the economy is the top concern, and the war with Iran is directly driving prices up, and there's no clear end in sight for the war.
DETROW: OK, I want to talk more about the speech that President Trump delivered this week. It was a primetime speech on Wednesday evening. He said the war would be over in about two to three weeks, but, Greg, did he explain at any point how he intends to do that?
MYRE: Yeah, Scott, he really didn't give any details on how this would happen or address the really key question here - is there going to be some kind of deal with Iran, or will the president just try to do this unilaterally and pull out? The U.S. and Iran have been having some diplomatic contacts. Pakistan has tried to play the broker here, but there's really no sign of a breakthrough right now. And given this short timeline that Trump is talking about, a U.S. ground operation now seems quite unlikely, though more troops are still moving into the region. But by far, the biggest problem is this ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz. It will be very difficult for Trump to just walk away from the war if this hasn't been resolved.
DETROW: What is the status of things in the strait right now?
MYRE: Yeah. Iran continues to keep it closed and mostly just through intimidation. It has hit some ships, caused some damage. But all it really needs to do is scare off the estimated 2,000 or so ships that are stranded in the Gulf. This gives Iran tremendous leverage in any negotiations. If the U.S. wants to open the strait by military means, it would likely need a much larger force. It would have to prepare for a lengthy operation. And if the U.S. pulls out with the strait still closed, well, that would leave Iran in charge of the waterway and really increase pressure and fears of a global oil shortage.
DETROW: So, Domenico, it seems fair to say at this point that this war is having real specific consequences for the economy.
MONTANARO: I mean, no doubt about it. They're intertwined. And Trump did, though, get some good news with a positive jobs report today. Inflation is also holding steady, which makes you wonder, though, what the economy would look like if it wasn't for this war or Trump's tariffs because both of those things have led to higher prices and really damaged Trump's approval ratings on the economy. The war is clearly also consuming so much of Trump's attention. Listen to him yesterday talking about the war and his spending priorities during an event that was closed to the press but later posted by the White House.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: It's not possible for us to take care of day care, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things. They can do it on a state basis. You can't do it on a federal. We have to take care of one thing - military protection. We have to guard the country.
MONTANARO: You know, as a political reporter, you know, my eyebrows just were raised really because it's a remarkable statement. Things like Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, those are popular and have been third rails in American politics to even talk about or think about cutting or getting rid of them. And now Trump is asking Congress for $1.5 trillion in defense spending, the most ever by a president for defense spending, while also asking for tens of billions in domestic spending cuts at a time when people are struggling. You know, it really shows the gravitational pull of war, even for a president, by the way, who promised to fix prices and stay out of wars.
DETROW: And I'll just quickly add he's asking for that spending in a war that Congress never approved. Greg, I want to go back to you to wind this down. This kind of wariness and distrust of the erratic messaging, it's not just the business side. How is this playing out with global partners?
MYRE: Yeah, not well at all, Scott. Yesterday, we saw Britain lead a virtual meeting with more than 40 countries to talk about how they might reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And this focused on diplomatic and economic means. And the U.S. was not included. You know, in past Mid East wars, the U.S. has rallied allies to form a coalition, but Trump launched this war with only Israel on board. The administration didn't consult allies. It repeatedly insults them. It tells them they should open the strait on their own. So no one should be surprised if these countries are just making their own arrangements.
DETROW: That is NPR's Greg Myre and Domenico Montanaro. Thanks to you both.
MYRE: Sure thing, Scott.
MONTANARO: Thanks for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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