LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Let's dig deeper now on the impact of the U.S. president making extreme threats and then backing off, with retired general Joseph Votel. He oversaw US operations across the Middle East as commander of Central Command from 2016 to 2019. He's a distinguished military fellow at the nonpartisan think tank, the Middle East Institute. Good morning, General, and welcome back to the program.
JOSEPH VOTEL: Good morning. Good to be with you.
FADEL: So let's start there. President Trump has backed away from threatening to destroy Iran's whole civilization to agreeing to a ceasefire. And that happened in a matter of hours. He now says the war is close to resolution. Leaving aside the absolutely shocking nature of that threat we heard yesterday, how does making those threats and then saying, oh, actually, there's a deal, affect Trump's credibility and, more broadly, the credibility of U.S. military leadership with the rest of the world?
VOTEL: Yeah, thanks. Well, I think what we've seen here is kind of a short conditional arrangement with the U.S., obviously suspending our attacks on Iran and Iran agreeing to open up the Straits of Hormuz, while we can move forward, you know, with some negotiations in Islamabad, hopefully starting this week. You know, I think there are some threats to credibility here on - this is a short-term opportunity. It's not yet enduring. It's fragile because it rests principally on deterrence that's, you know, being exhibited by both sides, the U.S., and on the other side, the Iranians, with their threats in the strait. And, of course...
FADEL: Right.
VOTEL: ...It's largely been done through third parties. There hasn't been direct, you know, communication between United States and Iran over this. So in my estimation, that does, you know, I think, erode a little bit at the credibility of this. In terms of, you know, kind of the political credibility that, you know, the president may feel on this, I'm not sure I'm the right person to make a determination on that. But...
FADEL: I guess what I'm asking, though, is if the president makes a military threat and then backs off and then makes a military threat, and then backs off, does it chip away at his credibility when it comes to how the U.S. military's follow-through is seen?
VOTEL: Well, it could, over time. In this case, I think the - you know, the president was - I think, was trying to use these threats to coerce Iran to come to the table and to get some kind of agreement. So, you know, again, I think there's a - it's a double-edged sword here in terms of this. I mean, the use of tough language has certainly been a feature of what we've seen over the last several weeks.
FADEL: The president says the U.S. met or exceeded its military objectives in this case. Do you see evidence of that?
VOTEL: Well, I think there's no doubt that, you know, our forces under CENTCOM have done a lot of destruction, and we've been successful in certainly dismantling a lot of the regime's military capabilities. They're not completely gone, as we've seen. They've continued to be able to launch missiles...
FADEL: Right.
VOTEL: ...And drones. And, of course, they're exerting influence in the Straits of Hormuz. So there's still work to do with this. But certainly, I think there's been a diminishment of the military capacity of - that supports the regime.
FADEL: Now, you mentioned that Iran has gotten a few missiles out since the ceasefire was announced. The U.S. military says it has halted offensive operations against Iran - that's according to the Associated Press - but continues its defensive action. So who defines what a defensive action is?
VOTEL: I think, you know, this provides a bit of an opportunity for some regrouping, so the U.S. will, you know, preserve some readiness and, you know, use this as an opportunity for assessment. But what I do expect that will happen from a military standpoint is we will continue to employ our surveillance capabilities. We will continue to exercise freedom of movement in international airspace in the global commons. And, of course, we'll be prepared to respond to violations of this. So I - you know, this is very - the military forces are very much at a high level of alert in terms of this. While we're not conducting attacks, I think we should also appreciate that the U.S. military will maintain a very high level of readiness and alertness to violations of the ceasefire.
FADEL: Do you think the ceasefire will hold?
VOTEL: Well, we'll see. It's a short-term opportunity here. I think what will be critical is what happens in Islamabad, starting on Friday and moving forward. It provides a vehicle for, you know, getting this into the diplomatic arena, and that should we should hope that we can move forward from that. So I'm hopeful, like many are, that this will provide a platform where we can get to some kind of enduring agreement.
FADEL: Retired four-star general Joseph Votel. He's a former commander of CENTCOM. General, thank you for your time.
VOTEL: Thanks, Leila. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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