JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
President Trump started this week with a threat to kill the entire Iranian civilization. A day later, he was declaring a ceasefire in the war. That dramatic shift came as public approval for the war continued to plummet, and members of Trump's own MAGA coalition grew increasingly angry about his handling of the war. We've asked NPR senior political editor and correspondent Domenico Montanaro and political reporter Elena Moore to help us unpack this week. Hi there.
DOMENICO MONTANARO, BYLINE: Hey. Great to be with you.
ELENA MOORE, BYLINE: Hey, Juana.
SUMMERS: Domenico, I mean, the shifts this week politically coming from the White House have been just stunning, frankly. Tell us about the politics at play.
MONTANARO: Well, I mean, look, clearly, Trump wants out of this war. It's unpopular, and while polls are showing Trump's base largely supporting him now, the longer it goes on, I mean, the worse it likely would get for him. As it is, there's been no rally-around-the-flag effect for Trump. You know, this was a war of choice. There's certainly a threat that Iran posed for a long time, but the U.S. wasn't attacked here. And his America First base has long believed Trump was someone who would keep the U.S. out of wars, not start new ones. I mean, that is how he campaigned.
SUMMERS: Right. And, Elena, this political pressure on Trump, it's been building for a while. What makes this moment with Iran different?
MOORE: Yeah. Juana, I mean, critics within Trump's MAGA movement have been really careful about how they criticize the administration and Trump himself in the past. And it's not super new for them to maybe take issue with a policy or someone within Trump's team or larger orbit. But what is rare is to hear that pushback directed right at the president, and that's the shift that we've seen this week from prominent figures long associated with the MAGA movement.
SUMMERS: Elena, what have you been hearing?
MOORE: Well, I mean, some of the fiercest criticism is coming from TV personalities turned podcasters like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly. They've been airing their concerns about the war on their shows for weeks. But over the last few days, we saw them take that turn to explicitly crossing Trump. On her show Tuesday, Kelly criticized Trump's posts on social media where he threatened to destroy the Iranian civilization if the country's leaders didn't agree to U.S. demands. Here's what Kelly said.
(SOUNDBITE OF PODCAST, "THE MEGYN KELLY SHOW")
MEGYN KELLY: This is completely irresponsible and disgusting. I wish he would stop doing this. Like, he can't negotiate without doing this? What does that say about him?
MOORE: And, Juana, earlier, Carlson called Trump's threats about bombing civilian infrastructure, quote, "vile," and others in this space have responded to Trump's comments by saying he should be removed from office.
SUMMERS: Yeah, those are pretty strong comments from Carlson and Megyn Kelly. What do you think the impact of that might be?
MOORE: Well, Carlson and Kelly host some of the most popular podcasts in the country, frankly, and importantly, a majority of their audience is Trump's base. That's Republicans over 45. So this criticism is reaching a critical group.
SUMMERS: Domenico, over to you. Is this entirely about Iran,\ or is there perhaps something deeper happening?
MONTANARO: Well, look, in politics, some people go all-in on a personality, you know, someone they really connect with, stand by, you know, in the case of Trump, a lot of people adopting him as something of an identity. You know, for others, they're looking for a politician to be the vehicle for their specific issue or set of things that they care about. Someone like Tucker Carlson has been trending away from the hawkishness of the neocons who dominated the old Republican Party - of which, by the way, he was a card-carrying, bowtie-wearing member. He's become much more noninterventionist, spoken out against U.S. involvement overseas and conflict with perceived American enemies like Russia for years. So for him, Trump's moves in Venezuela and Iran feel like a betrayal, but for most people, the economy and cost of living continue to be their dominant concerns. You know, the war and the economy are inextricably tied together. Gas prices are up 20% since the war began. Costs aren't coming down at all, and that continues to be frustrating for a lot of regular people.
SUMMERS: Yeah. I mean, are those same concerns showing up in how people are voting right now?
MONTANARO: Well, if there are two immovable truths about the 2026 election cycle, it's, one, that affordability remains voters' top concern, and two, President Trump is unpopular. Those things have been true no matter what else has been getting attention - war, immigration enforcement, whatever you want to think about. Those are fueling Democrats overperforming in special election after special election. We saw it again this week in Georgia in the election to replace former Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene. Greene won that seat by 29 points in 2024. The Republican who's going to replace her won it by 12. And remember, Trump isn't on the ballot. When that's the case, Republicans have had trouble turning out their base.
SUMMERS: Elena, I know that you've been spending some time recently at big conservative gatherings like CPAC as well as Turning Point rallies. What have you been hearing from people?
MOORE: Well, Trump has built a movement over the last decade, really, that is fiercely ideological. You know, he brought in a lot of folks who were essentially united under a big tent because of their support of him. And now this movement is going to have to figure out what they believe post-Trump. And I think the Iran war is an early example of that challenge. I talked to Joseph Bolick. He's 30 years old. We talked in Dallas a few weeks ago. He's voted for Trump since 2016 but says the war, along with things like the handling of the Epstein files, has turned him away from Trump, and he sees the movement splintering, with MAGA going in one direction and America First in another.
JOSEPH BOLICK: I don't think MAGA is America First. I think we try to be the police of the world. I think Trump's kind of an egomaniac, and he just wants to have power and popularity and just be, like, some great visionary. And yeah, like, he forgot about - he forgot where he came from.
SUMMERS: So, Domenico, I mean, where do Republicans go from here? Is the story of this midterm election already written or will we see changes in the coming weeks?
MONTANARO: Well, I think for Republicans, they're going to have to do a lot of thinking about what they do in a post-Trump world. You know, first of all, though, here in the short term in the midterm elections, in many respects, the cake is already baked and frosted. You know, people have very strong, dug-in feelings about Trump. He's shown no interest in reaching out beyond his base. And like we've been talking about, we're now seeing some fissures within that base. And even if that's not showing up in the polls, where we're seeing Republicans continue to support Trump and what he's doing, his approval rating, and the war in Iran, in the midterms, what's important is the national political environment and enthusiasm. Those are the most important factors. And right now, it's advantage Democrats.
SUMMERS: NPR's Domenico Montanaro and Elena Moore, thanks to both of you.
MONTANARO: You're welcome.
MOORE: Thanks, Juana. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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