SCOTT SIMON, HOST:
For more analysis, we're now joined by Kim Ghattas. She's an expert on the Middle East, currently a visiting professor at Dartmouth College. Kim, thanks so much for being with us.
KIM GHATTAS: Good morning. Thanks for having me.
SIMON: As we've been hearing, Vice President Vance is in Islamabad. Iranian negotiators are there, too. What does each side want out of these negotiations?
GHATTAS: Well, they are, as your correspondent just mentioned, the highest-level face-to-face negotiations between Iranian officials and American officials. We're just hearing reports from Pakistan that the first session between them, including JD Vance and Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff on the one hand and, on the Iranian side, the foreign minister, Seyed Araghchi, and the speaker of parliament, Ghalibaf - they have sat face to face.
What will - what has been discussed? We don't know precisely yet how the mood was in the room. All of that still needs to be transpired, but - still needs to come out. But the gap is so big between what the two sides are trying to achieve that I think the chances of success are small, but not impossible. The chances of a war resuming are there, for sure. And it depends on whether the two sides, the American and the Iranian, are keen enough to make sure the war does not resume, each for their own reasons, that they could potentially declare that the talks are making progress and fudge the language around what they've actually agreed on.
SIMON: President Trump posted yesterday that the Iranians, quote, "have no cards, other than a short-term extortion of the world by using international waterways." Does Iran really have no cards?
GHATTAS: Well, it has a pretty big card with...
SIMON: Yeah.
GHATTAS: ...The Strait of Hormuz, which I think was very accurately described as state-sponsored piracy. This is not something that can be sustained for the world economy. And this is not something that countries in the region, America's allies in the Gulf, are going to allow to continue in this fashion. And it also sets a terrible precedent worldwide, you know, thinking about other choke points on the high seas, including in Asia.
So the United States at the moment does not have a way to force Iran to reopen the strait. We're hearing now about mines that Iran laid at the bottom of the sea that can't be found. I have to say, I find that a little bit hard to believe. I think that's a very convenient excuse by the Iranians. But America's power and global standing really hinges on how these negotiations go forward and whether America is going to give up its traditional historical role of, you know, protecting and ensuring freedom of shipping around the world.
SIMON: At the same time, I have to ask - strategically could Iran overplay its cards, or card?
GHATTAS: Absolutely. Because Iran is in this position now where it's holding the world economy and America's economy, in a way, hostage to its ability to control the flow of oil through the choke point of the Strait of Hormuz, which is where 20% of the world's oil transits through - because they have that capacity now and they've discovered that leverage and because they feel that they have survived the last six, seven weeks of war, they may feel more triumphant than they actually are. And they may certainly overplay their hand.
I do think that the facade they're putting up and the bravado that they're signaling hides deep concerns about their own hold on power. They're going to need to have - double down on repression inside their own country, where the population is furious, of course, at being bombed by America and Israel, but the long-standing hatred towards the Islamic Republic regime is going to resurface again. And so this regime is going to come under increased pressure from inside and, as I said, potentially also from the outside if the war resumes.
SIMON: And, Kim, I have to ask you about how Lebanon enters the equation now because, of course, current ceasefire does not include Lebanon. Yes, please.
GHATTAS: Well...
SIMON: An area you know so well, of course.
GHATTAS: The prime minister of Pakistan very clearly said in his first statement announcing the ceasefire that Lebanon was included, and I don't think the prime minister of Pakistan is freelancing. I think that what happened is that that was the agreement. He put out the statement in coordination with the United States. The prime minister of Israel was not happy with the ceasefire and was not happy to stop, to rein in his army striking Lebanon. They decided to continue and then got the U.S. administration on board, which - then we heard from JD Vance saying, well, it was a misunderstanding. There is no misunderstanding there.
However, from a Lebanese perspective, we want to be included in the general Middle East ceasefire. But the Lebanese government and state have made very clear they don't want to be included in the negotiations that Iran is conducted. Lebanon needs to have its own separate track of negotiations with Israel, as we're seeing unfold now. It's a very tall order, but we have to acknowledge that it is historic to have face-to-face negotiations coming up this week between Lebanese officials and Israeli officials in Washington, expected on Tuesday, with the sponsorship or the mediation of the United States. This hasn't happened since...
SIMON: Yeah.
GHATTAS: ...The early '80s. It is something that Israel has wanted. And so now the onus is also on Israel to show that it's coming to these negotiations with good faith and not putting impossible conditions on the Lebanese.
SIMON: Kim Ghattas is the author of "Black Wave," a book on the Saudi-Iranian rivalry in the region. She's now teaching, of course, at Dartmouth College. Kim Ghattas, thanks so much for being with us.
GHATTAS: Thanks for having me.
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