MICHEL MARTIN, HOST:
In the U.S.-Iran showdown in the Gulf, one question is, who can hold out longer?
A MARTÍNEZ, HOST:
Both countries are blocking oil exports through the critical Strait of Hormuz, and both countries join others around the world taking an economic hit as oil is unable to reach global markets. Coming up, we'll discuss the blockade with a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. First, though, here's the latest information.
MARTIN: For a closer look, we're joined by NPR national security correspondent Greg Myre. Greg, good morning to you.
GREG MYRE, BYLINE: Hi, Michel.
MARTIN: So first of all, what is the scene around the Strait of Hormuz? Are any ships moving?
MYRE: Well, very, very little it seems. CNN reported a Chinese-owned ship traveled through the strait today and another ship reportedly made it through Monday. But this near-total halt to shipping traffic looks likely to become the norm. As we know, Iran closed the strait weeks ago, and the focus was blocking ships from Arab countries aligned with the U.S. And Iran has allowed out a small number of ships going to and from Iran. But even this trickle of ship traffic now faces the U.S. Navy blockade that began Monday against ships heading to and from Iranian ports. So both sides are blocking the other, and we could be looking at a tense, prolonged standoff.
MARTIN: And as the days pass, who is likely to feel the most economic pressure?
MYRE: Probably Iran. Iran's economy is hugely dependent on its oil exports, and it was getting some oil out, as we noted, but now that's cut off with the U.S. blockade. So it's quite possible Iran, with an already crippled economy, will suffer the most economic pain in an extended blockade. But, Michel, what's truly striking about this situation is that the vast majority of the countries in the entire world are taking an economic hit because of this conflict. That includes the U.S., which gets a minimal amount of oil from the Gulf. But because oil prices have surged globally - it's right around a hundred dollars a barrel now - the U.S. faces much higher gas prices, as do other countries. All the major economies in Asia and Europe depend heavily on imported oil, as do many developing countries.
MARTIN: What about oil-producing countries? Don't they reap a windfall when oil prices soar?
MYRE: So that's true, but many of the big oil producers have also been hit by the war and the shutdown in the Gulf. We're talking about Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait the United Arab Emirates. You know, there are a few oil-producing countries outside the Middle East, and they're likely to benefit by these higher prices, but we're talking about just a few exceptions. Really, the vast majority of the world is going to have to endure more economic hurt until the U.S. and Iran sort this out.
MARTIN: If this standoff continues, does either side have additional leverage to use against the other?
MYRE: Well, you know, yes, but not a lot that's obvious. In a crisis like this, you normally turn to allies, but President Trump has alienated many U.S. allies by not consulting them and, in many cases, insulting them. So none have answered his call to take part in the blockade, and Iran has long been isolated internationally and doesn't have many allies to begin with. You know, of course, Trump could end the ceasefire and return to war, but the president wasn't able to meet his goals with more than five weeks of heavy bombing, so he seems reluctant to do that. And there's no guarantee a renewed military operation would deliver the results he wants.
MARTIN: Any prospects for another round of negotiations?
MYRE: Yeah, Trump said Iran has been in touch and wants to make a deal. The Associated Press is reporting that Pakistan has proposed hosting a second round of talks like the ones they did last weekend. So there's a lot of chatter, but nothing solid. And then just on a related note, Israel and Lebanon are holding talks in Washington today to try to sort out that conflict, which is linked to the war in Iran.
MARTIN: That's NPR's Greg Myre. Greg, thanks.
MYRE: Sure thing, Michel. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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